T20 Blast: Durham vs Northamptonshire - Completed match?
Probability
99¢
1h
+22.7pp
24h
+46.9pp
24h Vol
$319.20
Liquidity
$72.53
Canonical status
confidence: highSource status (Polymarket)
Derived status (Orrery)
Reason
YES price is near 100¢ but the market has not been officially resolved.
Treat as effectively priced-in, not settled. The market is still live until expiry.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Jun 13, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 2 factors- 01Price move
Up 47pp over 24h
Now 99¢; +22.7pp in the last hour.
- 02Liquidity
Thin liquidity
Only $73 of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.
What to track next
- Set an alert if probability drops back below 94¢ — that's where this move would be reversing.
- Add to your watchlist — Home will show probability deltas since your last visit.
- Compare against sibling markets in the same event below — divergent pricing across related contracts is the cleanest tell.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Jun 13, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Verification Brief
A guided checklist for what must be proven before this market is treated as reliable context.
The price is pinned near a rail, but price is not settlement. Verify the official status before treating it as final.
Create trust-state alertVerification goal
Map resolution-relevant sources to the exact criteria needed to avoid misreading price as settlement.
What needs proof
Primary source
requiredConfirm the primary official sports result source and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question.
Current evidence: espncricinfo.com
Contract wording
requiredExtract the exact condition that makes YES resolve true and note any exclusions, time zone, deadline, or fallback rule.
Price is not settlement
requiredVerify whether the market is officially resolved or merely pinned near 0¢/100¢.
Current evidence: 99¢ current price
Orrery verification task T20 Blast: Durham vs Northamptonshire - Completed match? State: Pinned near YES — price pinned not settled Need sources for: 1. Primary source: Confirm the primary official sports result source and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question. 2. Contract wording: Extract the exact condition that makes YES resolve true and note any exclusions, time zone, deadline, or fallback rule. 3. Price is not settlement: Verify whether the market is officially resolved or merely pinned near 0¢/100¢. Drop only durable links that map to one criterion. Research only. Not trade advice.
Orrery verification brief T20 Blast: Durham vs Northamptonshire - Completed match? State: price pinned not settled Verify: Primary source + Contract wording Price is not settlement. Research only. Not trade advice.
Market link goes in reply
A controlled loop for durable sources. Every source must answer one criterion from this Verification Brief.
Sources
0
Criteria covered
0
Reviewed
0
Awaiting review
0
Submit a source mapped to a criterion
Recent source checks
Pilot audit summary
Research only · Not trade advice · Every source maps to one criterion
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- Jun 13, 14:00 UTCScheduled resolutionLOW
Market resolves in 161.5h
Price movement
+46.9pp over the last 24h, now 99¢.
Biggest hourly move: +49.4pp at 20:31 (to 99¢).
Show top 8 of 12 hourly moves
- 20:31 · +49.4pp → 99¢
- 19:00 · +27.6pp → 78¢
- 15:00 · +48.5pp → 99¢
- 14:00 · +22.0pp → 72¢
- 10:00 · +44.0pp → 94¢
- 09:00 · +44.0pp → 94¢
- 08:00 · +38.0pp → 88¢
- 06:00 · +33.0pp → 83¢
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
Related Markets
7- 0¢+0.1
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Sports · Vol $4.7M
- 0¢-52.4
Dota 2: Aurora vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs
Sports · Vol $3.2M
- 47¢+1.0
Spurs vs. Knicks
Sports · Vol $3.2M
- 0¢0.0
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Sports · Vol $2.2M
- 79¢+26.1
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?
Sports · Vol $1.4M
- 21¢-26.0
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals?
Sports · Vol $1.3M
Market Description
This market refers to whether the cricket match between Durham and Northamptonshire scheduled for 2026-06-06 in T20 Blast is completed under the competition's official playing conditions. This market resolves according to the finalized match status as published by https://www.espncricinfo.com/. Any match where an official result is declared — including results decided by DLS/DRS, over-rate penalties, a Super Over, forfeit/walkover, or any other on-field ruling — will resolve Yes. (Draws count as completed results when recognized by the competition.) If the match is abandoned, ends in No Result, is permanently canceled, or otherwise concludes without an official result, the market will resolve No. If the match is postponed or rescheduled, the market remains open until the listed fixture is completed or permanently canceled, after which it will resolve as described above.
Why this category?
confidence: highCategory
Source
Matched term
t20 blastReason
Question text matched the sports hard-marker "t20 blast" — runs before rules to catch upstream mis-tagging.
Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.
FAQ — questions readers actually ask
What is the current Polymarket probability for "T20 Blast: Durham vs Northamptonshire - Completed match?"?
As of Sat, 06 Jun 2026 20:31:36 GMT, YES is priced at 99% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed +46.9pp in the last 24 hours, +22.7pp in the last hour, and +0.0pp in the last 7 days.
When does this market resolve?
This market resolves by Jun 13, 2026 (2026-06-13T14:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from https://www.espncricinfo.com/.
What source determines the outcome?
Resolution is sourced from https://www.espncricinfo.com/. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.
How much is being traded on this market?
$319.20 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $806.67. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $72.53. Spread between best bid and best ask: 0.8¢.
Is this a trade recommendation?
No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.
How fresh is this data and where does it come from?
This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email digests are wired to a server-side cron and continue while your tabs are closed. Telegram and Discord are planned — every existing rule will keep working as channels light up.