T20 World Cup Sub Regional Europe Qualifier A: Guernsey vs Sweden - Who wins the toss?
Probability
2¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
-47.4pp
24h Vol
$233.40
Liquidity
$158.41
Canonical status
confidence: highSource status (Polymarket)
Derived status (Orrery)
Reason
Upstream UMA resolution status is 'proposed'.
Resolution is awaiting UMA confirmation. Price may move sharply when it settles.
Resolution & Risk
MEDIUM risk- End date
- May 23, 2026
- UMA status
- proposed
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Binary
- UMA status: proposed
- Wide spread (4.2¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 01Price move
Down 47pp over 24h
Now 2¢; flat in the last hour.
- 02Active signal
Resolution-risk observation firing
UMA dispute is active — settlement uncertainty, not new directional information.
- 03Spread cost
Wide spread — 4.2¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable advantage. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
- Wait for the UMA proposal to settle (current status: proposed) — price moves now reflect oracle dynamics, not odds.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
MEDIUM risk- End date
- May 23, 2026
- UMA status
- proposed
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Binary
- UMA status: proposed
- Wide spread (4.2¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- May 23, 03:30 UTCScheduled resolutionLOW
Market resolves in 158.9h
- 12:37SignalLOW
Resolution risk
UMA dispute is active — settlement uncertainty, not new directional information.
Price movement
-47.4pp over the last 24h, now 2¢.
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
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Market Description
This market refers to the pre-match coin toss for the cricket match between Guernsey and Sweden scheduled for 2026-05-15 in T20 World Cup Sub Regional Europe Qualifier A. This market resolves according to the official coin toss result (the team recorded as having won the toss) as published by https://www.espncricinfo.com/. If an official toss winner is recorded, the market will resolve based on that result even if the match is subsequently delayed, relocated, abandoned, or no ball is bowled. If the match is postponed or rescheduled, the market will remain open and resolve according to the toss result for the listed fixture when it is eventually played. If the fixture is permanently canceled, forfeited before any toss is conducted, or otherwise completed without an official toss winner being recorded, the market will resolve 50-50.
Why this category?
confidence: highCategory
Source
Matched term
world cupReason
World Cup — Sports (qualified by election overrides above).
Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.
FAQ — questions readers actually ask
What is the current Polymarket probability for "T20 World Cup Sub Regional Europe Qualifier A: Guernsey vs Sweden - Who wins the toss?"?
As of Sat, 16 May 2026 12:37:08 GMT, YES is priced at 2% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed -47.4pp in the last 24 hours, +0.0pp in the last hour, and +0.0pp in the last 7 days.
When does this market resolve?
This market resolves by May 23, 2026 (2026-05-23T03:30:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from https://www.espncricinfo.com/.
What source determines the outcome?
Resolution is sourced from https://www.espncricinfo.com/. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.
How much is being traded on this market?
$233.40 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $233.40. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $158.41. Spread between best bid and best ask: 4.2¢.
Is this a trade recommendation?
No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.
How fresh is this data and where does it come from?
This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.
Alerts
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