Counter-Strike: Evo Novo vs WAZABI - Map 1 Winner
Probability
50¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
+0.1pp
24h Vol
$21.99
Liquidity
$100.11
Canonical status
confidence: highSource status (Polymarket)
Derived status (Orrery)
Reason
Upstream UMA resolution status is 'proposed'.
Resolution is awaiting UMA confirmation. Price may move sharply when it settles.
Resolution & Risk
MEDIUM risk- End date
- May 21, 2026
- UMA status
- proposed
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Binary
- UMA status: proposed
- Wide spread (99.8¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Probability (last 7 days)
+50.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 2 factors- 01Active signal
Resolution-risk observation firing
Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.
- 02Spread cost
Wide spread — 99.8¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable advantage. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
- Wait for the UMA proposal to settle (current status: proposed) — price moves now reflect oracle dynamics, not odds.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
MEDIUM risk- End date
- May 21, 2026
- UMA status
- proposed
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Binary
- UMA status: proposed
- Wide spread (99.8¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Verification Brief
A guided checklist for what must be proven before this market is treated as reliable context.
The market is in an oracle/review state where proposal, dispute, and final settlement evidence matter more than the displayed price.
Create trust-state alertVerification goal
Map resolution-relevant sources to the exact criteria needed to avoid misreading price as settlement.
What needs proof
Primary source
requiredConfirm the primary news consensus source and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question.
Current evidence: https://hltv.org
Contract wording
requiredExtract the exact condition that makes YES resolve true and note any exclusions, time zone, deadline, or fallback rule.
Settlement state
requiredCheck whether the market is still live, expired-unresolved, UMA pending, disputed, or officially resolved.
Current evidence: UMA pending
Orrery verification task Counter-Strike: Evo Novo vs WAZABI - Map 1 Winner State: UMA pending — oracle review Need sources for: 1. Primary source: Confirm the primary news consensus source and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question. 2. Contract wording: Extract the exact condition that makes YES resolve true and note any exclusions, time zone, deadline, or fallback rule. 3. Settlement state: Check whether the market is still live, expired-unresolved, UMA pending, disputed, or officially resolved. Drop only durable links that map to one criterion. Research only. Not trade advice.
Orrery verification brief Counter-Strike: Evo Novo vs WAZABI - Map 1 Winner State: oracle review Verify: Primary source + Contract wording Price is not settlement. Research only. Not trade advice.
Market link goes in reply
A controlled loop for durable sources. Every source must answer one criterion from this Verification Brief.
Sources
0
Criteria covered
0
Reviewed
0
Awaiting review
0
Submit a source mapped to a criterion
Recent source checks
Pilot audit summary
Research only · Not trade advice · Every source maps to one criterion
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 13:16SignalLOW
Resolution risk
Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.
Price movement
+0.1pp over the last 24h, now 50¢.
Biggest hourly move: +50.0pp at Jun 4, 09:00 UTC (to 50¢).
Show top 8 of 39 hourly moves
- 09:00 · +49.9pp → 50¢
- 08:00 · +49.9pp → 50¢
- 06:00 · +49.9pp → 50¢
- 05:00 · +49.9pp → 50¢
- 04:00 · +49.9pp → 50¢
- 02:00 · +49.9pp → 50¢
- Jun 4, 10:00 UTC · +50.0pp → 50¢
- Jun 4, 09:00 UTC · +50.0pp → 50¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
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Market Description
This market refers to the Counter-Strike Round 3 match between Evo Novo and WAZABI in the Dust2.dk Ligaen Group Stage, initially scheduled for May 21 at 2:00PM ET. This market will resolve to "Evo Novo" if Evo Novo win Map 1 against WAZABI. This market will resolve to "WAZABI" if WAZABI win Map 1 against Evo Novo. If the match begins but is not completed, and Map 1 is concluded with a winner determined, this market will resolve based on the completed Map 1. If Map 1 is not completed for any reason, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled (not played at all) or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without play beginning, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://hltv.org. However, if https://hltv.org has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.
Why this category?
confidence: highCategory
Source
Matched term
counter-strikeReason
Question text matched the sports hard-marker "counter-strike" — runs before rules to catch upstream mis-tagging.
Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.
FAQ — questions readers actually ask
What is the current Polymarket probability for "Counter-Strike: Evo Novo vs WAZABI - Map 1 Winner"?
As of Fri, 05 Jun 2026 13:16:33 GMT, YES is priced at 50% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed +0.1pp in the last 24 hours, +0.0pp in the last hour, and +50.0pp in the last 7 days.
When does this market resolve?
This market resolves by May 21, 2026 (2026-05-21T23:15:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from https://hltv.org.
What source determines the outcome?
Resolution is sourced from https://hltv.org. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.
How much is being traded on this market?
$21.99 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $34.98. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $100.11. Spread between best bid and best ask: 99.8¢.
Is this a trade recommendation?
No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.
How fresh is this data and where does it come from?
This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email digests are wired to a server-side cron and continue while your tabs are closed. Telegram and Discord are planned — every existing rule will keep working as channels light up.