SportsExpires Jun 3, 2026
Creator

Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5

Probability

1h

-9.5pp

24h

+0.0pp

24h Vol

$0.00

Liquidity

$127.45

Research loop

Inspect detail

Read the move, holders, recent trades, source, and resolution risk before saving anything.

Canonical status

confidence: high

Source status (Polymarket)

active · uma=proposed

Derived status (Orrery)

UMA PENDING

Reason

Upstream UMA resolution status is 'proposed'.

Resolution is awaiting UMA confirmation. Price may move sharply when it settles.

Resolution & Risk

HIGH risk
End date
Jun 3, 2026
UMA status
proposed
Resolution source
Primary
consensus of credible reporting
Type
News consensus
Market type
Binary
  • UMA status: proposed
  • Market expires Jun 3, 2026 — dispute window active.

Probability (last 7 days)

+0.0pp 7d
1007550250
0¢
Jun 3, 2026, 20:00 UTCJun 3, 2026, 22:30 UTC
updated 22:30:22 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·snap:snap_2026-06-03T22-30Z

Why did it move?

Structured · 2 factors
  • 01
    Active signal

    Resolution-risk observation firing

    Expires in 0h. UMA dispute is active.

  • 02
    Liquidity

    Thin liquidity

    Only $127 of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.

What to track next

  • Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
  • Wait for the UMA proposal to settle (current status: proposed) — price moves now reflect oracle dynamics, not odds.
  • Set an alert for resolution status changes — expiry is in 0 hours.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Verification brief

oracle review

The market is in an oracle/review state where proposal, dispute, and final settlement evidence matter more than the displayed price.

Primary source

required

Confirm the primary news consensus source and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question.

Current evidence: https://hltv.org

Contract wording

required

Extract the exact condition that makes YES resolve true and note any exclusions, time zone, deadline, or fallback rule.

Settlement state

required

Check whether the market is still live, expired-unresolved, UMA pending, disputed, or officially resolved.

Current evidence: UMA pending

Telegram pilot prompt

Orrery verification task Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 State: UMA pending — oracle review Need sources for: 1. Primary source: Confirm the primary news consensus source and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question. 2. Contract wording: Extract the exact condition that makes YES resolve true and note any exclusions, time zone, deadline, or fallback rule. 3. Settlement state: Check whether the market is still live, expired-unresolved, UMA pending, disputed, or officially resolved. Drop only durable links that map to one criterion. Research only. Not trade advice.

X verification post

Orrery verification brief Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 State: oracle review Verify: Primary source + Contract wording Price is not settlement. Research only. Not trade advice.

Market link goes in reply

Source-drop audit

Submit durable sources that map to one resolution criterion.

Confirm the primary news consensus source and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question.

Research only · no price-only screenshots · no profit claims

Recent drops

Contributor audit

Research only · Not trade advice · Every source maps to one criterion

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • 23:00Scheduled resolution

    Market resolves in 0.5h

    HIGH
  • 22:30Signal

    Resolution risk

    Expires in 0h. UMA dispute is active.

    MEDIUM

Price movement

+0.0pp over the last 24h, now 1¢.

updated 22:30:22 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.

updated 22:30:22 UTC·src:Polymarket Data

Market Description

This market refers to the Counter-Strike match between Gaimin Gladiators and Heroic in the IEM Cologne Major Stage 1, initially scheduled for June 3 at 1:00PM ET. This market is decided solely by the total number of rounds played within Map 1 of this match (the combined round score of both teams on that single map), and is independent of which team wins Map 1 or the overall match. This market will resolve to "Over" if the combined number of rounds played by both teams on Map 1, including any overtime, is greater than 22.5. This market will resolve to "Under" if the combined number of rounds played is less than 22.5. If the combined number of rounds played is exactly 22.5, this market will resolve 50-50. Map 1 must be played to completion, with a final round score determined by rounds actually played, for this market to resolve to "Over" or "Under". If Map 1 is completed in this way, the market resolves on that round total regardless of how the remainder of the match concludes (including any later forfeit, disqualification, walkover, or default). If Map 1 is not played at all, is not played to completion, or is decided by forfeit, disqualification, walkover, or default rather than by rounds played to a conclusion, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without Map 1 being completed, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://hltv.org. However, if https://hltv.org has not published final results within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead, including video evidence.

Why this category?

confidence: medium

Category

Sports

Source

Gamma category hint

Matched term

Sports

Reason

No rule fired; using Polymarket's own category hint "Sports".

Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.

FAQ — questions readers actually ask

What is the current Polymarket probability for "Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5"?

As of Wed, 03 Jun 2026 22:30:22 GMT, YES is priced at 1% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed +0.0pp in the last 24 hours, -9.5pp in the last hour, and +0.0pp in the last 7 days.

When does this market resolve?

This market resolves by Jun 3, 2026 (2026-06-03T23:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from https://hltv.org.

What source determines the outcome?

Resolution is sourced from https://hltv.org. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.

How much is being traded on this market?

$0.00 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $0.00. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $127.45. Spread between best bid and best ask: 1.0¢.

Is this a trade recommendation?

No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.

How fresh is this data and where does it come from?

This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.

Alerts

¢
Deliver

In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email digests are wired to a server-side cron and continue while your tabs are closed. Telegram and Discord are planned — every existing rule will keep working as channels light up.

Top Holders

No holder data from the Data API.