Counter-Strike: HOTU vs INOX Division - Map 1 Winner
Probability
28¢
1h
-21.0pp
24h
+0.0pp
24h Vol
$1.8K
Liquidity
$9.8K
Canonical status
confidence: highSource status (Polymarket)
Derived status (Orrery)
Reason
Resolves in 4h.
The derived status is computed from the source flags plus the live YES price, so a market trading near a rail can read as PRICE-PINNED while upstream is still active. That isn't the same as resolved.
Resolution & Risk
HIGH risk- End date
- May 12, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Binary
- Market expires May 12, 2026 — dispute window active.
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 2 factors- 01Active signal
Resolution-risk observation firing
Expires in 4h.
- 02Liquidity
Thin liquidity
Only $9.8k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
- Set an alert for resolution status changes — expiry is in 4 hours.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
HIGH risk- End date
- May 12, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Binary
- Market expires May 12, 2026 — dispute window active.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 21:00Scheduled resolutionHIGH
Market resolves in 3.8h
- 17:12SignalLOW
Resolution risk
Expires in 4h.
Price movement
+0.0pp over the last 24h, now 28¢.
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
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Market Description
This market refers to the Counter-Strike Round of 16 match between HOTU and INOX Division in the CCT Europe Series 1 Playoffs, initially scheduled for May 12 at 1:00PM ET. This market will resolve to "HOTU" if HOTU win Map 1 against INOX Division. This market will resolve to "INOX Division" if INOX Division win Map 1 against HOTU. If the match begins but is not completed, and Map 1 is concluded with a winner determined, this market will resolve based on the completed Map 1. If Map 1 is not completed for any reason, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled (not played at all) or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without play beginning, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://hltv.org. However, if https://hltv.org has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.
Why this category?
confidence: highCategory
Source
Matched term
counter-strikeReason
Question text matched the sports hard-marker "counter-strike" — runs before rules to catch upstream mis-tagging.
Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.
FAQ — questions readers actually ask
What is the current Polymarket probability for "Counter-Strike: HOTU vs INOX Division - Map 1 Winner"?
As of Tue, 12 May 2026 17:12:37 GMT, YES is priced at 28% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed +0.0pp in the last 24 hours, -21.0pp in the last hour, and +0.0pp in the last 7 days.
When does this market resolve?
This market resolves by May 12, 2026 (2026-05-12T21:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from https://hltv.org.
What source determines the outcome?
Resolution is sourced from https://hltv.org. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.
How much is being traded on this market?
$1.8K of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $1.8K. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $9.8K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 1.0¢.
Is this a trade recommendation?
No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.
How fresh is this data and where does it come from?
This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email digests are wired to a server-side cron and continue while your tabs are closed. Telegram and Discord are planned — every existing rule will keep working as channels light up.
