Wallet profile

Past-Punishment

0xb4d250f58c26840e09723a83ce9c8149aa32ce99

activity 100/100

Wallet digest

profitable

Activity score

100/100

Performance measurable

Open positions

61

Open notional

$12.1K

Total PnL

$3.4K

Realised

$87.81

Win rate

58%

12 closed

Guardrail: wallet activity is not profitability, and large trades are not smart money. Use the sample, concentration, and copy-risk dimensions before reading this profile as meaningful.

Largest open positions

showing 10 of 61

Recent activity

Persistent ledger timeline

persistent

Ledger volume

$496.8K

Trades

12

Buy share

0%

Window

May 18, 18:00 UTC → Jul 16, 00:05 UTC

Last 30 days · daily volumemax $27.9K

Wallet edge sanity

Needs review

33/100
read-only

Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.

PnL is mostly mark-to-market

Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.

Required before treating wallet flow as useful

Resolved-only performance

58% win rate over 12 closed markets.

Copy-lag simulation

A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.

Liquidity and exit

Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.

Resolution-source risk

The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.

Survivorship bias

Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.

Wallet intelligence filter

Watch only

14/100
no PredictFoliopaper-only

Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.

Wallet signal
pass

5 live trades, 45 ledger trades, copy-risk 47/100.

Resolved-only track record
review

12 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.

Cost / slippage
missing

No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.

Resolution risk
missing

No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.

Market liquidity
missing

No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.

Copy-lag simulation
missing

No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.

Paper-only attribution
missing

No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.

Ledger intelligence

persistent

7d volume

$0.00

0 trades

30d volume

$51.8K

5 trades

Buy share

0%

Sample

established

45 ledger trades

Top market concentration

Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League?

$44.0K · 9% of recorded whale volume

Recorded market concentration

Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League?9% of recorded volume$44.0KWimbledon ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Novak Djokovic5% of recorded volume$26.0KWill Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?5% of recorded volume$22.9K

Profile dimensions

Activity49 / 100

Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.

Performance confidence40 / 100

How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.

Specialization0 / 100

Share of trades concentrated in their top category.

Early-entry36 / 100

Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.

Copy-risk47 / 100

How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.

Trades (all time)
5
Avg trade size
$29.19
Top category
—
Category concentration
0%
First seen
Jul 25, 01:52 UTC
Last active
Jul 25, 01:57 UTC
Win rate sample
12 closed

The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.

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updated 01:57:33 UTC·src:Polymarket Data