Counter-Strike: illwill vs 100 Thieves - Map 1 Winner
Probability
100¢
1h
+28.4pp
24h
+60.0pp
24h Vol
$29.5K
Liquidity
$35.5K
Resolution & Risk
HIGH risk- End date
- May 2, 2026
- UMA status
- proposed
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Binary
- UMA status: proposed
- Market expires May 2, 2026 — dispute window active.
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 01Price move
Up 60pp over 24h
Now 100¢; +28.4pp in the last hour.
- 02Active signal
Momentum signal firing
Probability moved up 60.0pp in 24h with 0.8× liquidity turnover and a tight spread.
- 03Active signal
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 4h. UMA dispute is active.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
- Wait for the UMA proposal to settle (current status: proposed) — price moves now reflect oracle dynamics, not odds.
- Set an alert for resolution status changes — expiry is in 4 hours.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
HIGH risk- End date
- May 2, 2026
- UMA status
- proposed
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Binary
- UMA status: proposed
- Market expires May 2, 2026 — dispute window active.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 21:00ResolveHIGH
Market resolves in 4.0h
- 17:00SignalHIGH
Momentum up
Probability moved up 60.0pp in 24h with 0.8× liquidity turnover and a tight spread.
- 17:00SignalMEDIUM
Resolution risk
Expires in 4h. UMA dispute is active.
Price movement
+60.0pp over the last 24h, now 100¢.
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
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Market Description
This market refers to the Counter-Strike Round 2 match between illwill and 100 Thieves in the Stake Ranked Episode 2: Closed Qualifier Playoffs, initially scheduled for May 2 at 11:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "illwill" if illwill win Map 1 against 100 Thieves. This market will resolve to "100 Thieves" if 100 Thieves win Map 1 against illwill. If the match begins but is not completed, and Map 1 is concluded with a winner determined, this market will resolve based on the completed Map 1. If Map 1 is not completed for any reason, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled (not played at all) or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without play beginning, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://hltv.org. However, if https://hltv.org has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.
Alerts
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