Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs ASTRAL - Map 1 Winner
Probability
100¢
1h
+1.9pp
24h
+28.4pp
24h Vol
$6.5K
Liquidity
$54.1K
Probability (last 7 days)
+33.5pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 5 factors- 1
Up 28pp over 24h
Now 100¢; +1.9pp in the last hour.
- 2
Light volume — move on a thin book
Only $6.5k traded against $54.1k of visible liquidity (0.12× turnover). Treat the move as low-confidence until volume confirms.
- 3
Momentum signal firing
Probability moved up 28.4pp in 24h with 0.1× liquidity turnover and a tight spread.
- 4
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 3h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 5
Expiry in 3h
Market resolves within 72 hours — the move likely reflects information about the resolution event itself rather than longer-horizon repricing. Verify the resolution source.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
- Wait for the UMA proposal to settle (current status: proposed) — price moves now reflect oracle dynamics, not odds.
- Set an alert for resolution status changes — expiry is in 3 hours.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
AI prose summary
Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 19:00ResolveHIGH
Market resolves in 2.8h
- 16:14SignalHIGH
Signal · Momentum up
Probability moved up 28.4pp in 24h with 0.1× liquidity turnover and a tight spread.
- 16:14SignalMEDIUM
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 3h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 16:13PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 22.5pp
to 100¢
- 15:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 19.2pp
to 100¢
- 12:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -6.5pp
to 76¢
- 11:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.5pp
to 77¢
- 09:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.5pp
to 73¢
- 08:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.5pp
to 82¢
- 06:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.0pp
to 80¢
- 05:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.0pp
to 78¢
- 03:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -6.5pp
to 68¢
- 02:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -6.5pp
to 69¢
- 00:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -13.5pp
to 70¢
- 23:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -15.0pp
to 68¢
- 21:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -11.0pp
to 74¢
- 20:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -11.0pp
to 73¢
- 18:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -13.0pp
to 72¢
- 17:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -13.0pp
to 72¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -12.5pp
to 72¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -6.0pp
to 79¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -6.5pp
to 78¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -13.0pp
to 72¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -12.5pp
to 72¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -9.5pp
to 75¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -13.0pp
to 71¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -12.0pp
to 73¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -13.0pp
to 72¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -11.5pp
to 73¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.5pp
to 81¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market refers to the Counter-Strike Quarterfinal 4 match between Gentle Mates and ASTRAL in the LORGAR RANKINGS Playoffs, initially scheduled for April 25 at 11:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "Gentle Mates" if Gentle Mates win Map 1 against ASTRAL. This market will resolve to "ASTRAL" if ASTRAL win Map 1 against Gentle Mates. If the match begins but is not completed, and Map 1 is concluded with a winner determined, this market will resolve based on the completed Map 1. If Map 1 is not completed for any reason, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled (not played at all) or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without play beginning, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://hltv.org. However, if https://hltv.org has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.
Resolution & Risk
HIGH risk- End date
- Apr 25, 2026
- UMA status
- proposed
- Resolution source
- https://hltv.orgNews consensus
- Market type
- Binary
- UMA status: proposed
- Market expires Apr 25, 2026 — dispute window active.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).
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