Loading shell…
SportsExpires Apr 25, 2026

Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs ASTRAL - Map 1 Winner

Probability

100¢

1h

+1.9pp

24h

+28.4pp

24h Vol

$6.5K

Liquidity

$54.1K

Probability (last 7 days)

+33.5pp 7d
Apr 18, 2026, 17:00Apr 25, 2026, 16:13
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB

Why did it move?

Structured · 5 factors
  1. 1

    Up 28pp over 24h

    Now 100¢; +1.9pp in the last hour.

  2. 2

    Light volume — move on a thin book

    Only $6.5k traded against $54.1k of visible liquidity (0.12× turnover). Treat the move as low-confidence until volume confirms.

  3. 3

    Momentum signal firing

    Probability moved up 28.4pp in 24h with 0.1× liquidity turnover and a tight spread.

  4. 4

    Resolution-risk signal firing

    Expires in 3h with open resolution ambiguity.

  5. 5

    Expiry in 3h

    Market resolves within 72 hours — the move likely reflects information about the resolution event itself rather than longer-horizon repricing. Verify the resolution source.

What to track next

  • Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
  • Wait for the UMA proposal to settle (current status: proposed) — price moves now reflect oracle dynamics, not odds.
  • Set an alert for resolution status changes — expiry is in 3 hours.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

AI prose summary

 

Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.

Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves

AllTradesSignalsPrice
  • 19:00Resolve

    Market resolves in 2.8h

    HIGH
  • 16:14Signal

    Signal · Momentum up

    Probability moved up 28.4pp in 24h with 0.1× liquidity turnover and a tight spread.

    HIGH
  • 16:14Signal

    Signal · Resolution risk

    Expires in 3h with open resolution ambiguity.

    MEDIUM
  • 16:13Price

    Probability up 22.5pp

    to 100¢

    MEDIUM
  • 15:00Price

    Probability up 19.2pp

    to 100¢

    MEDIUM
  • 12:00Price

    Probability down -6.5pp

    to 76¢

    MEDIUM
  • 11:00Price

    Probability down -3.5pp

    to 77¢

    MEDIUM
  • 09:00Price

    Probability down -4.5pp

    to 73¢

    MEDIUM
  • 08:00Price

    Probability up 5.5pp

    to 82¢

    MEDIUM
  • 06:00Price

    Probability up 6.0pp

    to 80¢

    MEDIUM
  • 05:00Price

    Probability up 4.0pp

    to 78¢

    MEDIUM
  • 03:00Price

    Probability down -6.5pp

    to 68¢

    MEDIUM
  • 02:00Price

    Probability down -6.5pp

    to 69¢

    MEDIUM
  • 00:00Price

    Probability down -13.5pp

    to 70¢

    MEDIUM
  • 23:00Price

    Probability down -15.0pp

    to 68¢

    MEDIUM
  • 21:00Price

    Probability down -11.0pp

    to 74¢

    MEDIUM
  • 20:00Price

    Probability down -11.0pp

    to 73¢

    MEDIUM
  • 18:00Price

    Probability down -13.0pp

    to 72¢

    MEDIUM
  • 17:00Price

    Probability down -13.0pp

    to 72¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability down -12.5pp

    to 72¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability down -6.0pp

    to 79¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability down -6.5pp

    to 78¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability down -13.0pp

    to 72¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability down -12.5pp

    to 72¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability down -9.5pp

    to 75¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability down -13.0pp

    to 71¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability down -12.0pp

    to 73¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability down -13.0pp

    to 72¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability down -11.5pp

    to 73¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability down -3.5pp

    to 81¢

    MEDIUM
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket Data

Market Description

This market refers to the Counter-Strike Quarterfinal 4 match between Gentle Mates and ASTRAL in the LORGAR RANKINGS Playoffs, initially scheduled for April 25 at 11:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "Gentle Mates" if Gentle Mates win Map 1 against ASTRAL. This market will resolve to "ASTRAL" if ASTRAL win Map 1 against Gentle Mates. If the match begins but is not completed, and Map 1 is concluded with a winner determined, this market will resolve based on the completed Map 1. If Map 1 is not completed for any reason, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled (not played at all) or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without play beginning, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://hltv.org. However, if https://hltv.org has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.

Resolution & Risk

HIGH risk
End date
Apr 25, 2026
UMA status
proposed
Resolution source
https://hltv.orgNews consensus
Market type
Binary
  • UMA status: proposed
  • Market expires Apr 25, 2026 — dispute window active.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Alerts

¢
Deliver

In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).