Democratic House and Republican Senate after U.S. 2022 Midterms?

• 01
  Active signal

  Resolution-risk observation firing

  Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.

• 02
  Spread cost

  Wide spread — 100.0¢

  Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable advantage. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.

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The 2022 United States elections will be held on Tuesday, November 8, 2022. During this midterm election year, all 435 seats in the House of Representatives and 35 of the 100 seats in the Senate will be contested. This is a market on the shifting balance of power in the two chambers of the U.S. Congress as a result of the 2022 United States general election. This market will resolve to "Yes" if as a result of the 2022 US general election the U.S. House of Representatives is controlled by The Democratic Party and the U.S. Senate is controlled by The Republican Party. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Control of a seat in the House of Representatives shall be determined solely by the ballot-listed affiliation of the person elected to that seat in the 2022 general election. Control of a seat in the Senate that is contested in the 2022 general election shall be determined by the ballot-listed party affiliation of the individual elected to that seat. An elected Senator who does not have a ballot-listed affiliation with either the Democratic or Republican parties will be considered to be affiliated with one party or the other if on Election Day that person a) is an incumbent Senator who is a member of that party’s caucus; or b) is not an incumbent Senator but has most recently publicly stated the intention to caucus with that party. Control of a seat in the Senate not contested in the 2022 general election shall be determined by the caucus affiliation of the incumbent as of 12:00 AM ET on the day of the 2022 US general election. In the event a Senate seat is vacant at 12:00 AM ET on the day of the 2022 US general election, and not subject to election on that date, that seat shall not be considered toward the resolution of this market. The controlling party of the Senate is defined as the party to which a majority of Senators belong to, or if the Senate is split 50-50 between two parties, the party with which the vice president is affiliated with between those two parties. The controlling party of the House is defined as the party to which a majority of House members belong to. Elected members of the House of Representatives who are without full voting rights (e.g. "delegates”, “resident commissioners”) do not count toward the 435 members considered for the resolution of this market. This market will resolve after the results of the 2022 general elections, based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, final state election authority certifications or other final official determinations of the 2022 election results may be used.

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