Will Deniz Undav be in Germany's Starting 11?
Probability
12¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
+3.0pp
24h Vol
$120.00
Liquidity
$166.19
Canonical status
confidence: mediumSource status (Polymarket)
Derived status (Orrery)
Reason
Liquidity is below $1,000 — price discovery is unreliable.
The derived status is computed from the source flags plus the live YES price, so a market trading near a rail can read as PRICE-PINNED while upstream is still active. That isn't the same as resolved.
Resolution & Risk
HIGH risk- End date
- Jun 15, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Binary
- Market expires Jun 15, 2026 — dispute window active.
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 01Price move
Up 3pp over 24h
Now 12¢; flat in the last hour.
- 02Active signal
Resolution-risk observation firing
Expires in 31h.
- 03Liquidity
Thin liquidity
Only $166 of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
- Set an alert for resolution status changes — expiry is in 31 hours.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
HIGH risk- End date
- Jun 15, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Binary
- Market expires Jun 15, 2026 — dispute window active.
Verification Brief
A guided checklist for what must be proven before this market is treated as reliable context.
Liquidity is thin enough that movement can be noisy. Verify source context before reading the move as information.
Create trust-state alertVerification goal
Map resolution-relevant sources to the exact criteria needed to avoid misreading price as settlement.
What needs proof
Primary source
requiredConfirm the primary official sports result source and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question.
Current evidence: fifa.com
Contract wording
requiredExtract the exact condition that makes YES resolve true and note any exclusions, time zone, deadline, or fallback rule.
Orrery verification task Will Deniz Undav be in Germany's Starting 11? State: Illiquid — liquidity sensitive Need sources for: 1. Primary source: Confirm the primary official sports result source and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question. 2. Contract wording: Extract the exact condition that makes YES resolve true and note any exclusions, time zone, deadline, or fallback rule. 3. Liquidity context: Check whether the move is supported by enough liquidity and volume to treat it as meaningful context. Drop only durable links that map to one criterion. Research only. Not trade advice.
Orrery verification brief Will Deniz Undav be in Germany's Starting 11? State: liquidity sensitive Verify: Primary source + Contract wording Price is not settlement. Research only. Not trade advice.
Market link goes in reply
A controlled loop for durable sources. Every source must answer one criterion from this Verification Brief.
Sources
0
Criteria covered
0
Reviewed
0
Awaiting review
0
Submit a source mapped to a criterion
Recent source checks
Pilot audit summary
Research only · Not trade advice · Every source maps to one criterion
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- Jun 15, 03:59 UTCScheduled resolutionHIGH
Market resolves in 31.5h
- 20:31SignalLOW
Resolution risk
Expires in 31h.
Price movement
+3.0pp over the last 24h, now 12¢.
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed player takes the field as a member of Germany's official starting lineup for the first group stage game the nation plays at 2026 FIFA World Cup. Otherwise, the corresponding market will resolve to "No". If a player is officially announced as part of the starting lineup but is replaced before the game begins for any reason, the corresponding market will resolve to "No". Only players that are on the pitch at kick off will be counted toward a "Yes" resolution. If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is cancelled, postponed after June 29, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or the listed player cannot be confirmed as a part of Germany's official 1st match starting lineup for the 2026 FIFA World Cup within that timeframe, the corresponding market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be information from FIFA (https://www.fifa.com/), however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Why this category?
confidence: highCategory
Source
Matched term
2026 fifa world cupReason
FIFA World Cup outright/team markets are Sports even when the team/country name is also a geopolitics keyword.
Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.
FAQ — questions readers actually ask
What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will Deniz Undav be in Germany's Starting 11?"?
As of Sat, 13 Jun 2026 20:31:37 GMT, YES is priced at 12% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed +3.0pp in the last 24 hours, +0.0pp in the last hour, and +0.0pp in the last 7 days.
When does this market resolve?
This market resolves by Jun 15, 2026 (2026-06-15T03:59:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from the market description on Polymarket.
What source determines the outcome?
Resolution is sourced from the market description on Polymarket. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.
How much is being traded on this market?
$120.00 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $120.00. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $166.19. Spread between best bid and best ask: 3.0¢.
Is this a trade recommendation?
No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.
How fresh is this data and where does it come from?
This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.
Alerts
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