Game 1: Ends in Daytime?

• 01
  Price move

  Down 50pp over 24h

  Now 1¢; -49.5pp in the last hour.

• 02
  Active signal

  Resolution-risk signal firing

  Expires in 3h.

• 03
  Liquidity

  Thin liquidity

  Only $6 of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

This market is about whether Game 1 ends during the daytime phase of the Dota 2 day/night cycle. In Dota 2, the day/night cycle alternates every 5 minutes (daytime runs from 0:00–5:00, 10:00–15:00, 20:00–25:00, and so on, while nighttime runs from 5:00–10:00, 15:00–20:00, 25:00–30:00, and so on). This market will resolve to "Yes" if the game-ending action (Ancient destruction or midgame forfeit) occurs during a daytime phase of the base in-game clock. This market will resolve to "No" if the game ends during a nighttime phase. Temporary nighttime effects caused by hero abilities (e.g., Night Stalker's Dark Ascension) do not affect resolution, only the base day/night cycle timer is considered. If the match is canceled (not played at all) or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date, this market will resolve to 50-50. If Game 1 is never played due to forfeit, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to 50-50. If Game 1 is not played because the series result has already been determined (e.g., a team clinches the series before Game 1 is needed), this market will resolve to 50-50. If Game 1 is remade, resolution will be based on the remade game. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://www.dotabuff.com. However, if https://www.dotabuff.com has not published final results within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.

Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.