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BusinessExpires Apr 29, 2026

Will eBay (EBAY) beat quarterly earnings?

Probability

89¢

1h

-0.6pp

24h

-0.8pp

24h Vol

$0.00

Liquidity

$3.2K

Probability (last 7 days)

+39.1pp 7d
Apr 18, 2026, 09:00Apr 25, 2026, 08:44
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB

Why did it move?

 

Heuristic summary, generated from the public market metrics above: probability movement, volume, liquidity, spread, signals, and resolution status.

Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves

AllTradesSignalsPrice
  • 0s agoResolve

    Market resolves in 108.3h

    LOW
  • 08:44Signal

    Signal · Resolution risk

    Expires in 108h with open resolution ambiguity.

    LOW
  • 10:00Price

    Probability down -6.8pp

    to 90¢

    MEDIUM
  • 09:00Price

    Probability up 7.5pp

    to 90¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability up 7.5pp

    to 90¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability up 8.0pp

    to 90¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability up 8.9pp

    to 90¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability up 10.2pp

    to 90¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability up 10.3pp

    to 90¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability up 10.1pp

    to 90¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability up 10.1pp

    to 90¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability up 11.2pp

    to 89¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability up 11.2pp

    to 89¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability up 11.2pp

    to 89¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability up 10.9pp

    to 89¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability up 10.5pp

    to 89¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability up 9.5pp

    to 88¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability up 10.9pp

    to 89¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability up 36.9pp

    to 89¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability up 36.9pp

    to 89¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability up 36.9pp

    to 89¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability up 36.9pp

    to 89¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability up 37.0pp

    to 89¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability up 39.0pp

    to 89¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability up 39.2pp

    to 89¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability up 38.7pp

    to 89¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability up 38.7pp

    to 89¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability up 38.8pp

    to 89¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability up 39.3pp

    to 89¢

    MEDIUM
  • 3d agoPrice

    Probability up 39.1pp

    to 89¢

    MEDIUM
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket Data

Market Description

As of market creation, eBay is estimated to release earnings on April 29, 2026. The Street consensus estimate for eBay’s non-GAAP EPS for the relevant quarter is $1.58 as of market creation. This market will resolve to "Yes" if eBay reports non-GAAP EPS greater than $1.58 for the relevant quarter in its next quarterly earnings release. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." The resolution source will be the non-GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents. If eBay releases earnings without non-GAAP EPS, then the market will resolve according to the non-GAAP EPS figure reported by SeekingAlpha. If no such figure is published within 96h of market close (4:00:00pm ET) on the day earnings are announced, the market will resolve according to the GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents; or, if not published there, according to the GAAP EPS provided by SeekingAlpha. If no GAAP EPS number is available from either source at that time, the market will resolve to “No.” (For the purposes of this market, GAAP EPS refers to diluted GAAP EPS, unless it is not published, in which case it refers to basic GAAP EPS.) If the company does not release earnings within 45 calendar days of the estimated earnings date, this market will resolve to “No.” Note: Subsequent restatements, corrections, or revisions made to the initially announced non-GAAP EPS figure will not qualify for resolution, except in the case of obvious and immediate mistakes (e.g., fat finger errors, as with Lyft's (LYFT) earnings release in February 2024). Note: The strike prices used in these markets are derived from SeekingAlpha estimates, and reflect the consensus of sell-side analyst estimates for non-GAAP EPS. Note: All figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding. Note: For the purposes of this market, IFRS EPS will be treated as GAAP EPS. Note: If multiple versions of non-GAAP EPS are published, the market will resolve according to the primary headline non-GAAP EPS number, which is typically presented on a diluted basis. If diluted is not published, then basic non-GAAP EPS will qualify. Note: All figures are expressed in USD, unless otherwise indicated. Note: For primarily internationally listed companies, this market refers specifically to the shares traded in the United States on U.S. stock exchanges such as the NYSE or Nasdaq. In cases where the company trades in the U.S. through an American Depositary Receipt (ADR) or American Depositary Share (ADS), this market will refer to the ADR/ADS.

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk
End date
Apr 29, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
https://seekingalpha.com/Ambiguous wording
Market type
Binary
  • Wide spread (8.1¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Alerts

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