Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026?
Probability
4¢
1h
+1.0pp
24h
-16.0pp
24h Vol
$94.2K
Liquidity
$50.4K
Probability (last 7 days)
+2.3pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 1
Down 16pp over 24h
Now 4¢; +1.0pp in the last hour.
- 2
Heavy volume on this book — 1.9× turnover
$94.2k traded against $50.4k of visible liquidity. The book is being worked, not just quoted.
- 3
Divergence signal firing
Price is moving against its 24h trend — 1h +1.0pp vs. 24h -16.0pp.
What to track next
- Set an alert if probability recovers above 9¢ — that's where this move would be reversing.
- Add to your watchlist — Home will show probability deltas since your last visit.
- Watch the 1h vs 24h trend on the chart above — divergence resolves either by 1h reverting to the 24h direction or by the 24h trend flipping.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
AI prose summary
Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 74.2h
- 13:47SignalMEDIUM
Signal · Short-term vs. trend divergence
Price is moving against its 24h trend — 1h +1.0pp vs. 24h -16.0pp.
- 11:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 10.1pp
to 16¢
- 09:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 9.6pp
to 15¢
- 08:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 9.1pp
to 14¢
- 06:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 8.6pp
to 13¢
- 05:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.9pp
to 13¢
- 03:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 8.3pp
to 15¢
- 02:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 8.5pp
to 14¢
- 00:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 9.5pp
to 16¢
- 22:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 12.7pp
to 18¢
- 21:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 14.7pp
to 20¢
- 20:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 13.7pp
to 19¢
- 18:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.9pp
to 17¢
- 17:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 7.3pp
to 17¢
- 16:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.0pp
to 14¢
- 14:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 10.9pp
to 20¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 10.1pp
to 19¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 9.6pp
to 18¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 8.9pp
to 18¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 10.3pp
to 18¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 7.5pp
to 14¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 8.3pp
to 13¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 7.6pp
to 12¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 7.5pp
to 11¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 9.1pp
to 12¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 8.1pp
to 12¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 7.4pp
to 11¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.8pp
to 10¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 7.1pp
to 10¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from April 21 12:00 PM ET to April 28, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Apr 28, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- https://x.com/elonmuskSocial media post
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).
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