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OtherMulti-outcomeExpires Apr 28, 2026

Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026?

Probability

1h

+1.0pp

24h

-16.0pp

24h Vol

$94.2K

Liquidity

$50.4K

Probability (last 7 days)

+2.3pp 7d
Apr 18, 2026, 15:00Apr 25, 2026, 13:46
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB

Why did it move?

Structured · 3 factors
  1. 1

    Down 16pp over 24h

    Now 4¢; +1.0pp in the last hour.

  2. 2

    Heavy volume on this book — 1.9× turnover

    $94.2k traded against $50.4k of visible liquidity. The book is being worked, not just quoted.

  3. 3

    Divergence signal firing

    Price is moving against its 24h trend — 1h +1.0pp vs. 24h -16.0pp.

What to track next

  • Set an alert if probability recovers above 9¢ — that's where this move would be reversing.
  • Add to your watchlist — Home will show probability deltas since your last visit.
  • Watch the 1h vs 24h trend on the chart above — divergence resolves either by 1h reverting to the 24h direction or by the 24h trend flipping.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

AI prose summary

 

Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.

Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves

AllTradesSignalsPrice
  • 0s agoResolve

    Market resolves in 74.2h

    LOW
  • 13:47Signal

    Signal · Short-term vs. trend divergence

    Price is moving against its 24h trend — 1h +1.0pp vs. 24h -16.0pp.

    MEDIUM
  • 11:00Price

    Probability up 10.1pp

    to 16¢

    MEDIUM
  • 09:00Price

    Probability up 9.6pp

    to 15¢

    MEDIUM
  • 08:00Price

    Probability up 9.1pp

    to 14¢

    MEDIUM
  • 06:00Price

    Probability up 8.6pp

    to 13¢

    MEDIUM
  • 05:00Price

    Probability up 6.9pp

    to 13¢

    MEDIUM
  • 03:00Price

    Probability up 8.3pp

    to 15¢

    MEDIUM
  • 02:00Price

    Probability up 8.5pp

    to 14¢

    MEDIUM
  • 00:00Price

    Probability up 9.5pp

    to 16¢

    MEDIUM
  • 22:00Price

    Probability up 12.7pp

    to 18¢

    MEDIUM
  • 21:00Price

    Probability up 14.7pp

    to 20¢

    MEDIUM
  • 20:00Price

    Probability up 13.7pp

    to 19¢

    MEDIUM
  • 18:00Price

    Probability up 6.9pp

    to 17¢

    MEDIUM
  • 17:00Price

    Probability up 7.3pp

    to 17¢

    MEDIUM
  • 16:00Price

    Probability up 4.0pp

    to 14¢

    MEDIUM
  • 14:00Price

    Probability up 10.9pp

    to 20¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability up 10.1pp

    to 19¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability up 9.6pp

    to 18¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability up 8.9pp

    to 18¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability up 10.3pp

    to 18¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability up 7.5pp

    to 14¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability up 8.3pp

    to 13¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability up 7.6pp

    to 12¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability up 7.5pp

    to 11¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability up 9.1pp

    to 12¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability up 8.1pp

    to 12¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability up 7.4pp

    to 11¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability up 6.8pp

    to 10¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability up 7.1pp

    to 10¢

    MEDIUM
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket Data

Market Description

This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from April 21 12:00 PM ET to April 28, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk
End date
Apr 28, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
https://x.com/elonmuskSocial media post
Market type
Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
  • Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Alerts

¢
Deliver

In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).