Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from April 23 to April 25, 2026?

1. 1

   Up 10pp over 24h

   Now 13¢; -0.9pp in the last hour.

2. 2

   Heavy volume on this book — 29.3× turnover

   $341.2k traded against $11.6k of visible liquidity. The book is being worked, not just quoted.

3. 3

   Resolution-risk signal firing

   Expires in 2h with open resolution ambiguity.

4. 4

   Thin liquidity

   Only $11.6k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.

5. 5

   Expiry in 2h

   Market resolves within 72 hours — the move likely reflects information about the resolution event itself rather than longer-horizon repricing. Verify the resolution source.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.

This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from April 23 12:00 PM ET to April 25, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.