Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from April 25 to April 27, 2026?
Probability
0¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
-0.1pp
24h Vol
$5.6K
Liquidity
$7.6K
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Heuristic summary, generated from the public market metrics above: probability movement, volume, liquidity, spread, signals, and resolution status.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveHIGH
Market resolves in 66.2h
- 21:47SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 66h with open resolution ambiguity.
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from April 25 12:00 PM ET to April 27, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Resolution & Risk
HIGH risk- End date
- Apr 27, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- https://x.com/elonmuskSocial media post
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
- Market expires Apr 27, 2026 — dispute window active.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).