Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from April 25 to April 27, 2026?

1. 1

   Heavy volume on this book — 1.8× turnover

   $26.1k traded against $14.4k of visible liquidity. The book is being worked, not just quoted.

2. 2

   Resolution-risk signal firing

   Expires in 50h with open resolution ambiguity.

3. 3

   Thin liquidity

   Only $14.4k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.

4. 4

   Expiry in 50h

   Market resolves within 72 hours — the move likely reflects information about the resolution event itself rather than longer-horizon repricing. Verify the resolution source.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.

This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from April 25 12:00 PM ET to April 27, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.