TechMulti-outcomeExpires May 8, 2026
Creator

Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026?

Probability

0¢

1h

+0.1pp

24h

-0.4pp

24h Vol

$9.7K

Liquidity

$9.7K

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk
End date
May 8, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Primary
Polymarket Post Counter (tracker)
Link
xtracker.polymarket.com
Type
Tracker / counter
Confidence
extracted · high
Market type
Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
  • Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Probability (last 7 days)

+0.0pp 7d
Apr 28, 2026, 18:00May 2, 2026, 02:58
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB

Why did it move?

Structured · 1 factor
  • 01
    Liquidity

    Thin liquidity

    Only $9.7k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.

What to track next

  • Set an alert at the next ±5pp probability move so you find out before the next leg.
  • Add to your watchlist — Home will show probability deltas since your last visit.
  • Compare against sibling markets in the same event below — divergent pricing across related contracts is the cleanest tell.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • 0s agoResolve

    Market resolves in 157.0h

    LOW

Price movement

-0.4pp over the last 24h, now 0¢.

Biggest hourly move: -16.4pp at 06:00 (to 1¢).

Show 4 hourly moves
  • 12:00 · -4.2pp → 1¢
  • 10:00 · -5.3pp → 1¢
  • 08:00 · -14.3pp → 1¢
  • 06:00 · -16.4pp → 1¢
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.

Open whale feedBrowse related marketsAlert me on the next trade
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

14
Same eventElon Musk # tweets May 1 - May 8, 2026?
Category · Tech

Market Description

This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from May 1 12:00 PM ET to May 8, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.

Alerts

¢
Deliver

In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.

Top Holders

20 wallets
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