SportsMulti-outcomeExpires May 18, 2026
Creator

Exact Score: Arsenal FC 5 - 0 Burnley FC?

Probability

44¢

1h

-3.0pp

24h

-4.0pp

24h Vol

$15.58

Liquidity

$21.32

Canonical status

confidence: medium

Source status (Polymarket)

active

Derived status (Orrery)

ILLIQUID

Reason

Liquidity is below $1,000 — price discovery is unreliable.

The derived status is computed from the source flags plus the live YES price, so a market trading near a rail can read as PRICE-PINNED while upstream is still active. That isn't the same as resolved.

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk
End date
May 18, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Primary
official statistics
Type
Official statistics
Confidence
extracted · high
Market type
Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
  • Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
  • Wide spread (87.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Probability (last 7 days)

+0.0pp 7d
May 5, 2026, 06:00May 8, 2026, 17:44
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·snap:snap_2026-05-08T17-44Z

Why did it move?

Structured · 3 factors
  • 01
    Price move

    Down 4pp over 24h

    Now 44¢; -3.0pp in the last hour.

  • 02
    Active signal

    Resolution-risk observation firing

    Spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge.

  • 03
    Spread cost

    Wide spread — 87.0¢

    Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable advantage. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.

What to track next

  • Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • 0s agoResolve

    Market resolves in 241.3h

    LOW
  • 17:44Signal

    Resolution risk

    Spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge.

    LOW

Price movement

-4.0pp over the last 24h, now 44¢.

Biggest hourly move: -5.0pp at 17:00 (to 44¢).

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.

Open whale feedBrowse related marketsAlert me on the next trade
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

14
Same eventArsenal FC vs. Burnley FC - Exact Score
Category · Sports

Market Description

In the upcoming Premier League game between Arsenal FC and Burnley FC, scheduled for May 18, 2026 at 3:00 PM ET: This market will resolve based on the final score of the Arsenal FC vs. Burnley FC match originally scheduled for May 18, 2026 at 3:00 PM ET, considering only the result at the end of 90 minutes of regulation plus stoppage time; extra time and penalty shoot-outs are excluded. If the actual score is not one of the explicitly listed outcomes, the market resolves to "Any Other Score." If the match is postponed, the market will remain open until it is completed; if it is canceled with no make-up game, the market resolves to "0-0." The primary resolution source for this market will be the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if final official statistics are not published within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

Why this category?

confidence: high

Category

Sports

Source

Manual override (pattern match)

Matched term

premier league

Reason

EPL — Sports.

Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.

FAQ — questions readers actually ask

What is the current Polymarket probability for "Exact Score: Arsenal FC 5 - 0 Burnley FC?"?

As of Fri, 08 May 2026 17:44:29 GMT, YES is priced at 44% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed -4.0pp in the last 24 hours, -3.0pp in the last hour, and +0.0pp in the last 7 days.

When does this market resolve?

This market resolves by May 18, 2026 (2026-05-18T19:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from the market description on Polymarket.

What source determines the outcome?

Resolution is sourced from the market description on Polymarket. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.

How much is being traded on this market?

$15.58 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $15.58. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $21.32. Spread between best bid and best ask: 87.0¢.

Is this a trade recommendation?

No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.

How fresh is this data and where does it come from?

This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.

Alerts

¢
Deliver

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Top Holders

3 wallets
Open on Polymarket