Spread: AZ (-2.5)

• 01
  Price move

  Down 6pp over 24h

  Now 5¢; flat in the last hour.

• 02
  Active signal

  Resolution-risk observation firing

  Expires in 46h.

• 03
  Spread cost

  Wide spread — 5.0¢

  Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable advantage. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

In the upcoming Eredivisie game, scheduled for May 10 at 10:45 AM ET: This market will resolve to "AZ" if AZ win the game by 3 or more goals. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Feyenoord Rotterdam". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50–50. This market will resolve according to the official final score published on eredivisie.nl. This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.