Ethereum Up or Down - April 30, 8AM ET
Probability
100¢
1h
+7.4pp
24h
+50.0pp
24h Vol
$11.5K
Liquidity
$492.5K
Resolution & Risk
HIGH risk- End date
- Apr 30, 2026
- UMA status
- proposed
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Binary
- UMA status: proposed
- Market expires Apr 30, 2026 — dispute window active.
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 5 factors- 01Price move
Up 50pp over 24h
Now 100¢; +7.4pp in the last hour.
- 02Volume pressure
Light volume — move on a thin book
Only $11.5k traded against $492.5k of visible liquidity (0.02× turnover). Treat the move as low-confidence until volume confirms.
- 03Active signal
Momentum signal firing
Probability moved up 50.0pp in 24h with 0.0× liquidity turnover and a tight spread.
- 04Active signal
Resolution-risk signal firing
Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.
- 05Resolution proximity
Past expiry — awaiting resolution
Market is past its end date. Any price move now is a settlement / dispute artefact, not new information.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
- Wait for the UMA proposal to settle (current status: proposed) — price moves now reflect oracle dynamics, not odds.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 13:38SignalHIGH
Momentum up
Probability moved up 50.0pp in 24h with 0.0× liquidity turnover and a tight spread.
- 13:38SignalMEDIUM
Resolution risk
Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.
- 13:00ResolveHIGH
Market resolved 1h ago
Price movement
+50.0pp over the last 24h, now 100¢.
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to "Up" if the close price is greater than or equal to the open price for the ETH/USDT 1 hour candle that begins on the time and date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Binance, specifically the ETH/USDT pair (https://www.binance.com/en/trade/ETH_USDT). The close « C » and open « O » displayed at the top of the graph for the relevant "1H" candle will be used once the data for that candle is finalized. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance ETH/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.
Resolution & Risk
HIGH risk- End date
- Apr 30, 2026
- UMA status
- proposed
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Binary
- UMA status: proposed
- Market expires Apr 30, 2026 — dispute window active.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.
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