SportsMulti-outcomeExpires May 29, 2026
Creator

Will Liam Lawson achieve pole position in Sprint Qualifying at the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix?

Probability

2¢

1h

-0.9pp

24h

-2.2pp

24h Vol

$10.00

Liquidity

$656.11

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk
End date
May 29, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Primary
formula1.com
Market type
Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
  • Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Probability (last 7 days)

-44.3pp 7d
Apr 28, 2026, 23:00May 5, 2026, 22:33
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·snap:snap_2026-05-05T22-33Z

Why did it move?

Structured · 2 factors
  • 01
    Price move

    Down 2pp over 24h

    Now 2¢; -0.9pp in the last hour.

  • 02
    Liquidity

    Thin liquidity

    Only $656 of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.

What to track next

  • Set an alert at the next ±5pp probability move so you find out before the next leg.
  • Add to your watchlist — Home will show probability deltas since your last visit.
  • Compare against sibling markets in the same event below — divergent pricing across related contracts is the cleanest tell.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • 0s agoResolve

    Market resolves in 573.9h

    LOW

Price movement

-2.2pp over the last 24h, now 2¢.

Biggest hourly move: -49.5pp at 2d ago (to 1¢).

Show top 8 of 67 hourly moves
  • 19:00 · -43.3pp → 0¢
  • 2d ago · -43.6pp → 3¢
  • 2d ago · -45.6pp → 4¢
  • 2d ago · -45.6pp → 4¢
  • 2d ago · -44.9pp → 4¢
  • 2d ago · -48.9pp → 1¢
  • 2d ago · -49.5pp → 1¢
  • 2d ago · -45.9pp → 1¢
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.

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updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

14
Same eventCanadian Grand Prix: Sprint Qualifying Pole Winner
Category · Sports

Market Description

This is a polymarket on the driver who achieves pole position in the Sprint Qualifying at the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix, scheduled for May 22, 2026. If the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix is canceled or rescheduled to a date after May 29, 2026, this market will resolve to “Other.” This market will resolve in favor of the driver who is officially recognized by Formula 1 as having set the fastest time during the Sprint Qualifying session for the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix. The market will be settled based on the FIA's official qualifying results, regardless of any subsequent penalties, disqualifications, or changes to the starting grid. For example, if a driver sets the fastest qualifying time but later receives a grid penalty or is moved down the starting order, the market will still resolve to “Yes” for that driver. The resolution source will be the official Formula 1 website and a consensus of credible sports news reporting.

Alerts

¢
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Top Holders

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