SportsMulti-outcomeExpires May 31, 2026
Creator

Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix?

Probability

4¢

1h

-0.1pp

24h

+0.5pp

24h Vol

$995.92

Liquidity

$4.3K

Canonical status

confidence: high

Source status (Polymarket)

active

Derived status (Orrery)

LIVE

Reason

Active market, expiry beyond the near-expiry window.

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk
End date
May 31, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Primary
formula1.com
Market type
Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
  • Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Probability (last 7 days)

-4.5pp 7d
May 3, 2026, 19:00May 10, 2026, 18:28
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·snap:snap_2026-05-10T18-28Z

Why did it move?

Structured · 1 factor
  • 01
    Liquidity

    Thin liquidity

    Only $4.3k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.

What to track next

  • Set an alert at the next ±5pp probability move so you find out before the next leg.
  • Add to your watchlist — Home will show probability deltas since your last visit.
  • Compare against sibling markets in the same event below — divergent pricing across related contracts is the cleanest tell.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • 0s agoScheduled resolution

    Market resolves in 505.5h

    LOW

Price movement

+0.5pp over the last 24h, now 4¢.

Biggest hourly move: -5.0pp at 4d ago (to 4¢).

Show 4 hourly moves
  • 4d ago · -3.5pp → 4¢
  • 4d ago · -5.0pp → 4¢
  • 4d ago · -5.0pp → 4¢
  • 4d ago · -5.0pp → 4¢
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.

Open whale feedBrowse related marketsAlert me on the next trade
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

14
Same eventCanadian Grand Prix: Driver Winner
Category · Sports

Market Description

This is a polymarket on the winner of the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix, scheduled for May 24, 2026. If the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix is canceled or rescheduled to a date after May 31, 2026, this market will resolve to “Other.” This market will resolve in favor of the driver who is officially listed in first place in the Final Classification published by the FIA following the conclusion of the race. The Final Classification is typically released 30-60 minutes after the race ends and includes any applied time penalties and official adjustments. Disqualifications or changes made after the publication of the Final Classification will not affect market resolution. The timing of the podium ceremony does not determine the result for this market — only the FIA's published classification will be used to resolve this market. The resolution source will be the official Formula 1 website and a consensus of credible sports news reporting.

Why this category?

confidence: medium

Category

Sports

Source

Keyword rule

Matched term

f1

Reason

Question text contains "f1" — matched the Sports keyword rule.

Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.

FAQ — questions readers actually ask

What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix?"?

As of Sun, 10 May 2026 18:28:37 GMT, YES is priced at 4% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed +0.5pp in the last 24 hours, -0.1pp in the last hour, and -4.5pp in the last 7 days.

When does this market resolve?

This market resolves by May 31, 2026 (2026-05-31T20:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from https://www.formula1.com/en/results/2026/races.

What source determines the outcome?

Resolution is sourced from https://www.formula1.com/en/results/2026/races. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.

How much is being traded on this market?

$995.92 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $3.0K. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $4.3K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 1.4¢.

Is this a trade recommendation?

No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.

How fresh is this data and where does it come from?

This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.

Alerts

¢
Deliver

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Top Holders

20 wallets
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