Will there be a safety car during the 2026 F1 Dutch Grand Prix?
Probability
64¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
+1.0pp
24h Vol
$54.99
Liquidity
$3.1K
Canonical status
confidence: highSource status (Polymarket)
Derived status (Orrery)
Reason
Active market, expiry beyond the near-expiry window.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Aug 30, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Primary
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Probability (last 7 days)
-4.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 2 factors- 01Price move
Up 1pp over 24h
Now 64¢; flat in the last hour.
- 02Liquidity
Thin liquidity
Only $3.1k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.
What to track next
- Set an alert at the next ±5pp probability move so you find out before the next leg.
- Add to your watchlist — Home will show probability deltas since your last visit.
- Compare against sibling markets in the same event below — divergent pricing across related contracts is the cleanest tell.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Aug 30, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Primary
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Verification Brief
A guided checklist for what must be proven before this market is treated as reliable context.
The market is live. Track source, liquidity, and wording before escalating it to a resolution-sensitive task.
Create trust-state alertVerification goal
Map resolution-relevant sources to the exact criteria needed to avoid misreading price as settlement.
What needs proof
Primary source
requiredConfirm the primary source and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question.
Current evidence: https://www.formula1.com/en/results/2026/races
Contract wording
requiredExtract the exact condition that makes YES resolve true and note any exclusions, time zone, deadline, or fallback rule.
Orrery verification task Will there be a safety car during the 2026 F1 Dutch Grand Prix? State: Live — live monitoring Need sources for: 1. Primary source: Confirm the primary source and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question. 2. Contract wording: Extract the exact condition that makes YES resolve true and note any exclusions, time zone, deadline, or fallback rule. 3. Liquidity context: Check whether the move is supported by enough liquidity and volume to treat it as meaningful context. Drop only durable links that map to one criterion. Research only. Not trade advice.
Orrery verification brief Will there be a safety car during the 2026 F1 Dutch Grand Prix? State: live monitoring Verify: Primary source + Contract wording Price is not settlement. Research only. Not trade advice.
Market link goes in reply
A controlled loop for durable sources. Every source must answer one criterion from this Verification Brief.
Sources
0
Criteria covered
0
Reviewed
0
Awaiting review
0
Submit a source mapped to a criterion
Recent source checks
Pilot audit summary
Research only · Not trade advice · Every source maps to one criterion
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- Aug 30, 13:00 UTCScheduled resolutionLOW
Market resolves in 248.3h
Price movement
+1.0pp over the last 24h, now 64¢.
Biggest hourly move: -15.5pp at Aug 18, 11:00 UTC (to 57¢).
Show top 8 of 68 hourly moves
- Aug 18, 14:00 UTC · -12.5pp → 60¢
- Aug 18, 12:00 UTC · -12.5pp → 60¢
- Aug 18, 11:00 UTC · -15.5pp → 57¢
- Aug 18, 09:00 UTC · -15.0pp → 57¢
- Aug 18, 06:00 UTC · -10.0pp → 57¢
- Aug 18, 04:00 UTC · -10.0pp → 57¢
- Aug 18, 03:00 UTC · -10.0pp → 57¢
- Aug 18, 02:00 UTC · -10.0pp → 57¢
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a safety car is deployed at any point during the 2026 F1 Dutch Grand Prix, scheduled for Aug 23, 2026. The market will resolve to "No" if the race is completed without any safety car deployment. If the 2026 F1 Dutch Grand Prix is canceled or rescheduled to a date after Aug 30, 2026, this market will resolve 50-50. Virtual Safety Car (VSC) deployments do not count as safety car deployments for the purpose of this market. Only physical safety car deployments where the safety car enters the track will result in a "Yes" resolution. The resolution source will be the official Formula 1 website and a consensus of credible sports news reporting.
Why this category?
confidence: mediumCategory
Source
Matched term
f1Reason
Question text contains "f1" — matched the Sports keyword rule.
Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.
FAQ — questions readers actually ask
What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will there be a safety car during the 2026 F1 Dutch Grand Prix?"?
As of Thu, 20 Aug 2026 04:40:59 GMT, YES is priced at 64% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed +1.0pp in the last 24 hours, +0.0pp in the last hour, and -4.0pp in the last 7 days.
When does this market resolve?
This market resolves by Aug 30, 2026 (2026-08-30T13:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from https://www.formula1.com/en/results/2026/races.
What source determines the outcome?
Resolution is sourced from https://www.formula1.com/en/results/2026/races. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.
How much is being traded on this market?
$54.99 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $316.47. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $3.1K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 1.0¢.
Is this a trade recommendation?
No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.
How fresh is this data and where does it come from?
This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.
Alerts
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