SportsMulti-outcomeExpires May 10, 2026
Creator

Will Mercedes have the highest constructor score at the 2026 F1 Miami Grand Prix?

Probability

49¢

1h

+14.5pp

24h

-1.0pp

24h Vol

$0.00

Liquidity

$67.83

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk
End date
May 10, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Primary
Official Formula 1 data
Link
formula1.com
Type
Official sports result
Market type
Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
  • Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
  • Wide spread (93.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Probability (last 7 days)

-1.0pp 7d
Apr 25, 2026, 18:00May 2, 2026, 17:29
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB

Why did it move?

Structured · 3 factors
  • 01
    Price move

    Down 1pp over 24h

    Now 49¢; +14.5pp in the last hour.

  • 02
    Active signal

    Resolution-risk signal firing

    Spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge.

  • 03
    Spread cost

    Wide spread — 93.0¢

    Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.

What to track next

  • Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • 0s agoResolve

    Market resolves in 194.5h

    LOW
  • 17:29Signal

    Resolution risk

    Spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge.

    LOW

Price movement

-1.0pp over the last 24h, now 49¢.

Biggest hourly move: -25.0pp at 15:00 (to 37¢).

Show top 8 of 38 hourly moves
  • 15:00 · -25.0pp → 37¢
  • 13:00 · -24.5pp → 37¢
  • 12:00 · -24.5pp → 37¢
  • 11:00 · -24.5pp → 37¢
  • 09:00 · -24.5pp → 37¢
  • 1d ago · +13.5pp → 63¢
  • 3d ago · +13.5pp → 62¢
  • 3d ago · +13.5pp → 62¢
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.

Open whale feedBrowse related marketsAlert me on the next trade
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

14
Same eventMiami Grand Prix: Which Constructor Scores 1st?
Category · Sports

Market Description

This market will resolve to the constructor team that collects the most points at the 2026 F1 Miami Grand Prix, currently scheduled for May 3, 2026. In the case of a tie between two teams for most points, this market will resolve in favor of the team whose listed name comes first alphabetically. As soon as the results for this event are known, this market will resolve. If the 2026 F1 Miami Grand Prix is canceled or rescheduled to a date after May 10, 2026, this market will resolve to “Other.” The resolution source for this market will be official information from Formula 1 (F1).

Alerts

¢
Deliver

In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.

Top Holders

No holder data from the Data API.

Open on Polymarket