Will Arvid Lindblad finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Miami Grand Prix?
Probability
49¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
+0.0pp
24h Vol
$10.01
Liquidity
$6.09
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 2 factors- 1
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 364h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 2
Wide spread — 90.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
AI prose summary
Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 364.5h
- 15:31SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 364h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 09:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.0pp
to 47¢
- 08:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -6.5pp
to 44¢
- 06:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -6.0pp
to 44¢
- 04:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.0pp
to 47¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed driver finishes within the top three positions in the official "Final Classification" for the F1 Miami Grand Prix, scheduled for May 3, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The "Final Classification" is published by the FIA following the conclusion of the race and includes any applied time penalties and official adjustments. It is typically released 30-60 minutes after the race ends. Disqualifications or changes made after the publication of the "Final Classification" will not affect market resolution. The timing of the podium ceremony does not determine the result for this market — only the FIA's published classification will be used to resolve this market. If the Miami Grand Prix is postponed, this market will remain open until the event has been completed. If the Miami Grand Prix is permanently canceled, this market will resolve 50-50.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- May 10, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- https://www.formula1.com/en/results/2026/races
- Market type
- Binary
- Wide spread (90.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).