Will there be a red flag during the 2026 F1 Miami Grand Prix?
Probability
45¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
+3.0pp
24h Vol
$205.37
Liquidity
$1.6K
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- May 10, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Primary
- Market type
- Binary
- Wide spread (8.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Probability (last 7 days)
-5.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 01Price move
Up 3pp over 24h
Now 45¢; flat in the last hour.
- 02Active signal
Resolution-risk signal firing
Spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge.
- 03Spread cost
Wide spread — 8.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- May 10, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Primary
- Market type
- Binary
- Wide spread (8.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 193.8h
- 18:11SignalLOW
Resolution risk
Spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge.
Price movement
+3.0pp over the last 24h, now 45¢.
Biggest hourly move: -22.5pp at 2d ago (to 28¢).
Show top 8 of 38 hourly moves
- 2d ago · -22.5pp → 28¢
- 2d ago · -22.5pp → 28¢
- 2d ago · -21.5pp → 28¢
- 2d ago · -21.5pp → 28¢
- 2d ago · -21.5pp → 28¢
- 2d ago · -22.0pp → 28¢
- 2d ago · -22.0pp → 28¢
- 2d ago · -22.0pp → 28¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
Related Markets
6- 100¢+32.4
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-02?
Sports · Vol $2.5M
- 100¢+54.4
Indian Premier League: Chennai Super Kings vs Mumbai Indians
Sports · Vol $1.9M
- 32¢+4.0
76ers vs. Celtics
Sports · Vol $1.7M
- 100¢+47.4
UFC Fight Night: Carlos Prates vs. Jack Della Maddalena (Welterweight, Main Card)
Sports · Vol $1.1M
- 0¢-55.5
Madrid Open: Mirra Andreeva vs Marta Kostyuk
Sports · Vol $908.7K
- 82¢0.0
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs FaZe (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Playoffs
Sports · Vol $860.6K
Market Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a red flag is shown at any point during the 2026 F1 Miami Grand Prix, scheduled for May 3, 2026. The market will resolve to "No" if the race is completed without any red flag periods. If the 2026 F1 Miami Grand Prix is canceled or rescheduled to a date after May 10, 2026, this market will resolve 50-50. A red flag shown during practice sessions, qualifying sessions, or any other session besides the main race does not count for this market. Only red flags shown during the Grand Prix race itself will result in a "Yes" resolution. The resolution source will be the official Formula 1 website and a consensus of credible sports news reporting.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.