Will Lewis Hamilton win the Sprint at the 2026 F1 Miami Grand Prix?
Probability
2¢
1h
+0.4pp
24h
-41.8pp
24h Vol
$2.0K
Liquidity
$7.3K
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- May 9, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Primary
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
Probability (last 7 days)
-46.3pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 2 factors- 01Price move
Down 42pp over 24h
Now 2¢; +0.4pp in the last hour.
- 02Liquidity
Thin liquidity
Only $7.3k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.
What to track next
- Set an alert if probability recovers above 7¢ — that's where this move would be reversing.
- Add to your watchlist — Home will show probability deltas since your last visit.
- Compare against sibling markets in the same event below — divergent pricing across related contracts is the cleanest tell.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- May 9, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Primary
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 168.6h
Price movement
-41.8pp over the last 24h, now 2¢.
Biggest hourly move: -47.9pp at 05:00 (to 2¢).
Show top 8 of 47 hourly moves
- 09:00 · -47.3pp → 2¢
- 07:00 · -47.4pp → 2¢
- 06:00 · -47.5pp → 2¢
- 05:00 · -47.9pp → 2¢
- 03:00 · -47.9pp → 2¢
- 02:00 · -47.9pp → 2¢
- 00:00 · -47.6pp → 2¢
- 1d ago · -45.5pp → 5¢
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
Related Markets
14- 15¢+6.5
Will Charles Leclerc win the Sprint at the 2026 F1 Miami Grand Prix?
Sports · Vol $5.5K
- 46¢+39.0
Will Lando Norris win the Sprint at the 2026 F1 Miami Grand Prix?
Sports · Vol $6.7K
- 28¢-9.0
Will Kimi Antonelli win the Sprint at the 2026 F1 Miami Grand Prix?
Sports · Vol $5.1K
- 3¢+0.4
Will Max Verstappen win the Sprint at the 2026 F1 Miami Grand Prix?
Sports · Vol $2.8K
- 12¢+1.0
Will Oscar Piastri win the Sprint at the 2026 F1 Miami Grand Prix?
Sports · Vol $2.0K
- 4¢-32.6
Will George Russell win the Sprint at the 2026 F1 Miami Grand Prix?
Sports · Vol $4.0K
- 50¢0.0
Will any other driver win the Sprint at the 2026 F1 Miami Grand Prix?
Sports · Vol $0.00
- 50¢0.0
Will Driver A win the Sprint at the 2026 F1 Miami Grand Prix?
Sports · Vol $0.00
- 13¢-66.0
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-02?
Sports · Vol $2.5M
- 100¢+47.4
UFC Fight Night: Carlos Prates vs. Jack Della Maddalena (Welterweight, Main Card)
Sports · Vol $1.1M
- 28¢-1.0
76ers vs. Celtics
Sports · Vol $883.9K
- 100¢+75.4
LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs Nongshim Red Force (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2
Sports · Vol $872.1K
- 100¢+69.5
LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs Nongshim Red Force - Game 2 Winner
Sports · Vol $864.3K
- 0¢-23.4
Will FC Nantes vs. Olympique de Marseille end in a draw?
Sports · Vol $694.1K
Market Description
This is a polymarket on the driver who wins the Sprint at the 2026 F1 Miami Grand Prix, scheduled for May 2, 2026. If the 2026 F1 Miami Grand Prix is canceled or rescheduled to a date after May 9, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other." This market will resolve in favor of the driver who is officially credited with winning the Sprint as published by the FIA. If the Sprint is canceled or does not take place, this market will resolve to "Other." The resolution source will be the official Formula 1 website and a consensus of credible sports news reporting.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.