Will Charles Leclerc win the 2026 F1 Miami Grand Prix?
Probability
7¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
-0.5pp
24h Vol
$287.73
Liquidity
$7.7K
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 1 factor- 1
Thin liquidity
Only $7.7k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.
What to track next
- Set an alert at the next ±5pp probability move so you find out before the next leg.
- Add to your watchlist — Home will show probability deltas since your last visit.
- Compare against sibling markets in the same event below — divergent pricing across related contracts is the cleanest tell.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
AI prose summary
Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 364.8h
- 06:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -10.0pp
to 8¢
- 05:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -10.0pp
to 8¢
- 03:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -10.0pp
to 8¢
- 02:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -10.0pp
to 8¢
- 00:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -41.5pp
to 8¢
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This is a polymarket on the winner of the 2026 F1 Miami Grand Prix, scheduled for May 3, 2026. If the 2026 F1 Miami Grand Prix is canceled or rescheduled to a date after May 10, 2026, this market will resolve to “Other.” This market will resolve in favor of the driver who is officially listed in first place in the Final Classification published by the FIA following the conclusion of the race. The Final Classification is typically released 30-60 minutes after the race ends and includes any applied time penalties and official adjustments. Disqualifications or changes made after the publication of the Final Classification will not affect market resolution. The timing of the podium ceremony does not determine the result for this market — only the FIA's published classification will be used to resolve this market. The resolution source will be the official Formula 1 website and a consensus of credible sports news reporting.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- May 10, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- https://www.formula1.com/en/results/2026/races
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).
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