SportsMulti-outcomeExpires Jun 14, 2026
Creator

Will Charles Leclerc achieve the fastest lap at the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix?

Probability

41¢

1h

-2.5pp

24h

+29.5pp

24h Vol

$0.00

Liquidity

$2.2K

Research loop

Inspect detail

Read the move, holders, recent trades, source, and resolution risk before saving anything.

MarketsDetailWatchlistAlertBrief

Canonical status

confidence: high

Source status (Polymarket)

active

Derived status (Orrery)

LIVE

Reason

Active market, expiry beyond the near-expiry window.

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk
End date
Jun 14, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Primary
formula1.com
Market type
Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
  • Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
  • Wide spread (54.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Share risk cardRead full market rules on Polymarket

Probability (last 7 days)

-6.5pp 7d
1007550250
40¢
May 29, 2026, 16:00 UTCJun 5, 2026, 15:26 UTC
updated 15:26:48 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·snap:snap_2026-06-05T15-26Z

Why did it move?

Structured · 3 factors
  • 01
    Price move

    Up 30pp over 24h

    Now 41¢; -2.5pp in the last hour.

  • 02
    Active signal

    Resolution-risk observation firing

    Spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge.

  • 03
    Spread cost

    Wide spread — 54.0¢

    Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable advantage. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.

What to track next

  • Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Verification Brief

A guided checklist for what must be proven before this market is treated as reliable context.

live monitoring
Trust transition

The market is live. Track source, liquidity, and wording before escalating it to a resolution-sensitive task.

Create trust-state alert

Verification goal

Map resolution-relevant sources to the exact criteria needed to avoid misreading price as settlement.

What needs proof

Primary source

required

Confirm the primary source and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question.

Current evidence: https://www.formula1.com/en/results/2026/races

Contract wording

required

Extract the exact condition that makes YES resolve true and note any exclusions, time zone, deadline, or fallback rule.

Telegram verification task

Orrery verification task Will Charles Leclerc achieve the fastest lap at the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? State: Live — live monitoring Need sources for: 1. Primary source: Confirm the primary source and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question. 2. Contract wording: Extract the exact condition that makes YES resolve true and note any exclusions, time zone, deadline, or fallback rule. 3. Liquidity context: Check whether the move is supported by enough liquidity and volume to treat it as meaningful context. Drop only durable links that map to one criterion. Research only. Not trade advice.

X verification thread

Orrery verification brief Will Charles Leclerc achieve the fastest lap at the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? State: live monitoring Verify: Primary source + Contract wording Price is not settlement. Research only. Not trade advice.

Market link goes in reply

Guided source review

A controlled loop for durable sources. Every source must answer one criterion from this Verification Brief.

Sources

0

Criteria covered

0

Reviewed

0

Awaiting review

0

Submit a source mapped to a criterion

Confirm the primary source and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question.

Research only · no price-only screenshots · no profit claims

Recent source checks

Pilot audit summary

Research only · Not trade advice · Every source maps to one criterion

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • Jun 14, 13:00 UTCScheduled resolution

    Market resolves in 213.6h

    LOW
  • 15:26Signal

    Resolution risk

    Spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge.

    LOW

Price movement

+29.5pp over the last 24h, now 41¢.

Biggest hourly move: -37.0pp at Jun 3, 07:00 UTC (to 11¢).

Show top 8 of 48 hourly moves
  • 21:00 · -26.5pp → 17¢
  • 17:00 · -31.5pp → 13¢
  • 16:00 · -32.0pp → 12¢
  • Jun 4, 14:00 UTC · -34.5pp → 12¢
  • Jun 4, 12:00 UTC · -30.0pp → 13¢
  • Jun 4, 01:00 UTC · -26.5pp → 18¢
  • Jun 3, 07:00 UTC · -37.0pp → 11¢
  • Jun 1, 09:00 UTC · -35.5pp → 12¢
updated 15:26:48 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.

Open large-trade flowBrowse related marketsAlert me on the next trade
updated 15:26:48 UTC·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

14
Same eventMonaco Grand Prix: Driver Fastest Lap
Category · Sports

Market Description

This is a polymarket on the driver who achieves the fastest lap at the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix, scheduled for Jun 7, 2026. If the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix is canceled or rescheduled to a date after Jun 14, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other." This market will resolve in favor of the driver who is officially credited with the fastest lap in the Final Classification published by the FIA following the conclusion of the race. The fastest lap must be set during the race itself; times from practice sessions, qualifying, or any other sessions are not considered. If no driver completes a lap during the race (e.g., due to a red flag ending the race prematurely), this market will resolve to "Other." The resolution source will be the official Formula 1 website and a consensus of credible sports news reporting.

Why this category?

confidence: high

Category

Sports

Source

Sports hard marker

Matched term

monaco

Reason

Question text matched the sports hard-marker "monaco" — runs before rules to catch upstream mis-tagging.

Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.

FAQ — questions readers actually ask

What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will Charles Leclerc achieve the fastest lap at the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix?"?

As of Fri, 05 Jun 2026 15:26:48 GMT, YES is priced at 41% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed +29.5pp in the last 24 hours, -2.5pp in the last hour, and -6.5pp in the last 7 days.

When does this market resolve?

This market resolves by Jun 14, 2026 (2026-06-14T13:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from https://www.formula1.com/en/results/2026/races.

What source determines the outcome?

Resolution is sourced from https://www.formula1.com/en/results/2026/races. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.

How much is being traded on this market?

$0.00 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $16.66. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $2.2K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 54.0¢.

Is this a trade recommendation?

No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.

How fresh is this data and where does it come from?

This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.

Alerts

¢
Deliver

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Top Holders

4 wallets
Open on Polymarket