Will George Russell finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix?
Probability
0¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
-8.9pp
24h Vol
$10.6K
Liquidity
$20.3K
Canonical status
confidence: highSource status (Polymarket)
Derived status (Orrery)
Reason
Upstream UMA resolution status is 'proposed'.
Resolution is awaiting UMA confirmation. Price may move sharply when it settles.
Resolution & Risk
MEDIUM risk- End date
- Jun 14, 2026
- UMA status
- proposed
- Resolution source
- Primary
- Market type
- Binary
- UMA status: proposed
Probability (last 7 days)
-50.9pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 01Price move
Down 9pp over 24h
Now 0¢; flat in the last hour.
- 02Active signal
Resolution-risk observation firing
UMA dispute is active — settlement uncertainty, not new directional information.
- 03Liquidity
Thin liquidity
Only $20.3k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
- Wait for the UMA proposal to settle (current status: proposed) — price moves now reflect oracle dynamics, not odds.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
MEDIUM risk- End date
- Jun 14, 2026
- UMA status
- proposed
- Resolution source
- Primary
- Market type
- Binary
- UMA status: proposed
Verification Brief
A guided checklist for what must be proven before this market is treated as reliable context.
The market is in an oracle/review state where proposal, dispute, and final settlement evidence matter more than the displayed price.
Create trust-state alertVerification goal
Map resolution-relevant sources to the exact criteria needed to avoid misreading price as settlement.
What needs proof
Primary source
requiredConfirm the primary source and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question.
Current evidence: https://www.formula1.com/en/results/2026/races
Contract wording
requiredExtract the exact condition that makes YES resolve true and note any exclusions, time zone, deadline, or fallback rule.
Settlement state
requiredCheck whether the market is still live, expired-unresolved, UMA pending, disputed, or officially resolved.
Current evidence: UMA pending
Orrery verification task Will George Russell finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? State: UMA pending — oracle review Need sources for: 1. Primary source: Confirm the primary source and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question. 2. Contract wording: Extract the exact condition that makes YES resolve true and note any exclusions, time zone, deadline, or fallback rule. 3. Settlement state: Check whether the market is still live, expired-unresolved, UMA pending, disputed, or officially resolved. Drop only durable links that map to one criterion. Research only. Not trade advice.
Orrery verification brief Will George Russell finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? State: oracle review Verify: Primary source + Contract wording Price is not settlement. Research only. Not trade advice.
Market link goes in reply
A controlled loop for durable sources. Every source must answer one criterion from this Verification Brief.
Sources
0
Criteria covered
0
Reviewed
0
Awaiting review
0
Submit a source mapped to a criterion
Recent source checks
Pilot audit summary
Research only · Not trade advice · Every source maps to one criterion
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- Jun 14, 13:00 UTCScheduled resolutionLOW
Market resolves in 160.7h
- 20:17SignalLOW
Resolution risk
UMA dispute is active — settlement uncertainty, not new directional information.
Price movement
-8.9pp over the last 24h, now 0¢.
Biggest hourly move: -50.5pp at 19:00 (to 0¢).
Show top 8 of 65 hourly moves
- 20:00 · -50.0pp → 0¢
- 19:00 · -50.5pp → 0¢
- 17:00 · -46.7pp → 0¢
- 16:00 · -46.6pp → 0¢
- 14:00 · -42.0pp → 3¢
- 22:00 · -40.0pp → 10¢
- 21:00 · -42.5pp → 9¢
- Jun 6, 20:00 UTC · -42.5pp → 9¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed driver finishes within the top three positions in the official "Final Classification" for the F1 Monaco Grand Prix, scheduled for Jun 7, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The "Final Classification" is published by the FIA following the conclusion of the race and includes any applied time penalties and official adjustments. It is typically released 30-60 minutes after the race ends. Disqualifications or changes made after the publication of the "Final Classification" will not affect market resolution. The timing of the podium ceremony does not determine the result for this market — only the FIA's published classification will be used to resolve this market. If the Monaco Grand Prix is postponed, this market will remain open until the event has been completed. If the Monaco Grand Prix is permanently canceled, this market will resolve 50-50.
Why this category?
confidence: highCategory
Source
Matched term
monacoReason
Question text matched the sports hard-marker "monaco" — runs before rules to catch upstream mis-tagging.
Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.
FAQ — questions readers actually ask
What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will George Russell finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix?"?
As of Sun, 07 Jun 2026 20:17:38 GMT, YES is priced at 0% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed -8.9pp in the last 24 hours, +0.0pp in the last hour, and -50.9pp in the last 7 days.
When does this market resolve?
This market resolves by Jun 14, 2026 (2026-06-14T13:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from https://www.formula1.com/en/results/2026/races.
What source determines the outcome?
Resolution is sourced from https://www.formula1.com/en/results/2026/races. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.
How much is being traded on this market?
$10.6K of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $11.4K. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $20.3K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 0.1¢.
Is this a trade recommendation?
No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.
How fresh is this data and where does it come from?
This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email digests are wired to a server-side cron and continue while your tabs are closed. Telegram and Discord are planned — every existing rule will keep working as channels light up.