Where can I see the live data, signals, and large-trade flow for this market?

Orrery's per-market terminal at https://orrery.me/markets/fact-check-epstein-video-confirmed-fake renders a 7-day probability chart, recent trades scoped to this market, top YES/NO holders, all firing signals (momentum / divergence / flow / resolution-risk), and an AI-generated movement explanation. A machine-readable Markdown summary is available at https://orrery.me/markets/fact-check-epstein-video-confirmed-fake/markdown.

PoliticsExpires Jan 10, 2026Closed

Creator

Fact Check: Epstein video confirmed fake?

Probability

100¢

-0.7pp

24h

+0.0pp

24h Vol

$0.00

Liquidity

$0.00

Historical archiveResolved YES

Orrery restored this market from Polymarket's closed-market records. Treat the numbers below as last-known market context, then verify the resolution source before citing the outcome.

How Orrery handles status →

Research loop

Inspect detail

Read the move, holders, recent trades, source, and resolution risk before saving anything.

Markets Detail Watchlist Alert Brief

Canonical status

confidence: medium

Source status (Polymarket)

active · closed · uma=resolved

Derived status (Orrery)

RESOLVED YES

Reason

Upstream marked the market closed/settled with YES price dominant.

The derived status is computed from the source flags plus the live YES price, so a market trading near a rail can read as PRICE-PINNED while upstream is still active. That isn't the same as resolved.

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk

End date: Jan 10, 2026
UMA status: resolved
Resolution source: Primary
US Government
Link
justice.gov
Type
Official government source
Confidence
extracted · high
Market type: Binary

No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.

Share risk card Read full market rules on Polymarket

Probability (last 7 days)

+0.0pp 7d

No price history available

updated 05:12:49 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·snap:snap_2026-06-05T05-12Z

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk

End date: Jan 10, 2026
UMA status: resolved
Resolution source: Primary
US Government
Link
justice.gov
Type
Official government source
Confidence
extracted · high
Market type: Binary

No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.

Share risk card Read full market rules on Polymarket

Verification Brief

A guided checklist for what must be proven before this market is treated as reliable context.

officially resolved

Trust transition

The market appears resolved. The useful check is whether the source and final oracle state match the displayed outcome.

Verification goal

Map resolution-relevant sources to the exact criteria needed to avoid misreading price as settlement.

What needs proof

Primary source

required

Confirm the primary official government source and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question.

Current evidence: US Government

Contract wording

required

Extract the exact condition that makes YES resolve true and note any exclusions, time zone, deadline, or fallback rule.

Telegram verification task

Orrery verification task Fact Check: Epstein video confirmed fake? State: Resolved YES — officially resolved Need sources for: 1. Primary source: Confirm the primary official government source and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question. 2. Contract wording: Extract the exact condition that makes YES resolve true and note any exclusions, time zone, deadline, or fallback rule. 3. Liquidity context: Check whether the move is supported by enough liquidity and volume to treat it as meaningful context. Drop only durable links that map to one criterion. Research only. Not trade advice.

X verification thread

Orrery verification brief Fact Check: Epstein video confirmed fake? State: officially resolved Verify: Primary source + Contract wording Price is not settlement. Research only. Not trade advice.

Market link goes in reply

Guided source review

A controlled loop for durable sources. Every source must answer one criterion from this Verification Brief.

Sources

Criteria covered

Reviewed

Awaiting review

Submit a source mapped to a criterion

Recent source checks

Pilot audit summary

Research only · Not trade advice · Every source maps to one criterion

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

No timeline events available yet. The timeline fills in as trades land, signals fire, or the price moves more than 3pp in an hour.

updated 05:12:49 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.

Open large-trade flow Browse related markets Alert me on the next trade

updated 05:12:49 UTC·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

Category · Politics

Market Description

On December 22, a video surfaced depicting the 2019 suicide of Jeffrey Epstein in his prison cell, sourced from the Epstein files released on December 19. https://www.justice.gov/epstein/files/DataSet%208/EFTA00029924.mp4 This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is definitive evidence confirming that the video is fake by January 10, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If any federal authority of the United States formally confirms that the video has been significantly digitally altered, edited, AI-generated or augmented, or doctored to make it appear as though it is footage of Jeffrey Epstein's suicide it will qualify for a "Yes" resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting or official information from the US Government.

Why this category?

confidence: high

FAQ — questions readers actually ask

What is the current Polymarket probability for "Fact Check: Epstein video confirmed fake?"?

As of Fri, 05 Jun 2026 05:12:49 GMT, YES is priced at 100% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed +0.0pp in the last 24 hours, -0.7pp in the last hour, and +0.0pp in the last 7 days.

When does this market resolve?

This market resolves by Jan 10, 2026 (2026-01-10T00:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from UMA optimistic oracle (resolved).

What source determines the outcome?

Resolution is sourced from UMA optimistic oracle (resolved). Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.

How much is being traded on this market?

$0.00 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $685.0K. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $0.00. Spread between best bid and best ask: 0.1¢.

Is this a trade recommendation?

No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.

How fresh is this data and where does it come from?

This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.

Alerts

Deliver

In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email digests are wired to a server-side cron and continue while your tabs are closed. Telegram and Discord are planned — every existing rule will keep working as channels light up.

Top Holders

11 wallets

YES

Snappy-Chip1

Open on Polymarket