Fed rate hike in 2024?
Probability
0¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
-0.4pp
24h Vol
$0.00
Liquidity
$0.00
Orrery restored this market from Polymarket's closed-market records. Treat the numbers below as last-known market context, then verify the resolution source before citing the outcome.
Canonical status
confidence: mediumSource status (Polymarket)
Derived status (Orrery)
Reason
Upstream marked the market closed/settled with NO price dominant.
The derived status is computed from the source flags plus the live YES price, so a market trading near a rail can read as PRICE-PINNED while upstream is still active. That isn't the same as resolved.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Dec 18, 2024
- UMA status
- resolved
- Resolution source
- PrimaryFederal ReserveTypeOfficial government sourceConfidenceextracted · high
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.0pp 7dResolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Dec 18, 2024
- UMA status
- resolved
- Resolution source
- PrimaryFederal ReserveTypeOfficial government sourceConfidenceextracted · high
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Verification brief
officially resolvedThe market appears resolved. The useful check is whether the source and final oracle state match the displayed outcome.
Primary source
requiredConfirm the primary official government source source and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question.
Current evidence: Federal Reserve
Contract wording
requiredExtract the exact condition that makes YES resolve true and note any exclusions, time zone, deadline, or fallback rule.
Orrery verification task Fed rate hike in 2024? State: Resolved NO — officially resolved Need sources for: 1. Primary source: Confirm the primary official government source source and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question. 2. Contract wording: Extract the exact condition that makes YES resolve true and note any exclusions, time zone, deadline, or fallback rule. 3. Liquidity context: Check whether the move is supported by enough liquidity and volume to treat it as meaningful context. Drop only durable links that map to one criterion. Research only. Not trade advice.
Orrery verification brief Fed rate hike in 2024? State: officially resolved Verify: Primary source + Contract wording Price is not settlement. Research only. Not trade advice.
Market link goes in reply
Submit durable sources that map to one resolution criterion.
Recent drops
Contributor audit
Research only · Not trade advice · Every source maps to one criterion
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowRecent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between April 25 and December 18, 2024's Fed meeting. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate changes information following its December 18 meeting. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Why this category?
confidence: highCategory
Source
Matched term
fedReason
Question text contains the high-signal keyword "fed" — matched the Macro rule.
Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.
FAQ — questions readers actually ask
What is the current Polymarket probability for "Fed rate hike in 2024?"?
As of Thu, 04 Jun 2026 10:56:25 GMT, YES is priced at 0% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed -0.4pp in the last 24 hours, +0.0pp in the last hour, and +0.0pp in the last 7 days.
When does this market resolve?
This market resolves by Dec 18, 2024 (2024-12-18T12:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from UMA optimistic oracle (resolved).
What source determines the outcome?
Resolution is sourced from UMA optimistic oracle (resolved). Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.
How much is being traded on this market?
$0.00 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $1.5M. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $0.00. Spread between best bid and best ask: 0.1¢.
Is this a trade recommendation?
No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.
How fresh is this data and where does it come from?
This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email digests are wired to a server-side cron and continue while your tabs are closed. Telegram and Discord are planned — every existing rule will keep working as channels light up.