SportsMulti-outcomeExpires Jun 4, 2026
Creator

Will Bhutan win on 2026-06-04?

Probability

0¢

1h

-0.8pp

24h

-5.1pp

24h Vol

$34.5K

Liquidity

$30.5K

Research loop

Inspect detail

Read the move, holders, recent trades, source, and resolution risk before saving anything.

MarketsDetailWatchlistAlertBrief

Canonical status

confidence: high

Source status (Polymarket)

active

Derived status (Orrery)

EXPIRED

Reason

Expiry is in the past but upstream has not confirmed a resolution.

Expiry passed and the market has not been officially resolved. Do not treat the price as the outcome.

Resolution & Risk

HIGH risk
End date
Jun 4, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Primary
official statistics
Link
fifa.com
Type
Official statistics
Market type
Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
  • Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
  • Market expires Jun 4, 2026 — dispute window active.
Share risk cardRead full market rules on Polymarket

Probability (last 7 days)

-30.1pp 7d
1007550250
0¢
May 28, 2026, 14:00 UTCJun 4, 2026, 13:28 UTC
updated 13:28:31 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·snap:snap_2026-06-04T13-28Z

Why did it move?

Structured · 3 factors
  • 01
    Price move

    Down 5pp over 24h

    Now 0¢; -0.8pp in the last hour.

  • 02
    Active signal

    Momentum observation firing

    Probability moved down 5.1pp in 24h with 1.1× liquidity turnover and a tight spread.

  • 03
    Active signal

    Resolution-risk observation firing

    Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.

What to track next

  • Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Verification Brief

A guided checklist for what must be proven before this market is treated as reliable context.

resolution sensitive
Trust transition

The event window has passed and the market should not be read as settled until the upstream resolution path is confirmed.

Verification goal

Map resolution-relevant sources to the exact criteria needed to avoid misreading price as settlement.

What needs proof

Primary source

required

Confirm the primary official statistics and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question.

Current evidence: official statistics

Contract wording

required

Extract the exact condition that makes YES resolve true and note any exclusions, time zone, deadline, or fallback rule.

Settlement state

required

Check whether the market is still live, expired-unresolved, UMA pending, disputed, or officially resolved.

Current evidence: Expired, unresolved

Telegram verification task

Orrery verification task Will Bhutan win on 2026-06-04? State: Expired, unresolved — resolution sensitive Need sources for: 1. Primary source: Confirm the primary official statistics and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question. 2. Contract wording: Extract the exact condition that makes YES resolve true and note any exclusions, time zone, deadline, or fallback rule. 3. Settlement state: Check whether the market is still live, expired-unresolved, UMA pending, disputed, or officially resolved. Drop only durable links that map to one criterion. Research only. Not trade advice.

X verification thread

Orrery verification brief Will Bhutan win on 2026-06-04? State: resolution sensitive Verify: Primary source + Contract wording Price is not settlement. Research only. Not trade advice.

Market link goes in reply

Guided source review

A controlled loop for durable sources. Every source must answer one criterion from this Verification Brief.

Sources

0

Criteria covered

0

Reviewed

0

Awaiting review

0

Submit a source mapped to a criterion

Confirm the primary official statistics and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question.

Research only · no price-only screenshots · no profit claims

Recent source checks

Pilot audit summary

Research only · Not trade advice · Every source maps to one criterion

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • 13:28Signal

    Momentum down

    Probability moved down 5.1pp in 24h with 1.1× liquidity turnover and a tight spread.

    MEDIUM
  • 13:28Signal

    Resolution risk

    Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.

    LOW
  • 12:00Scheduled resolution

    Expiry passed 1h ago; not yet resolved upstream

    HIGH

Price movement

-5.1pp over the last 24h, now 0¢.

Biggest hourly move: -36.4pp at 18:00 (to 5¢).

Show top 8 of 62 hourly moves
  • 18:00 · -36.4pp → 5¢
  • 17:00 · -36.4pp → 5¢
  • 15:00 · -35.4pp → 5¢
  • Jun 3, 13:00 UTC · -34.0pp → 6¢
  • Jun 3, 11:00 UTC · -35.5pp → 7¢
  • Jun 3, 09:00 UTC · -29.5pp → 12¢
  • Jun 3, 06:00 UTC · -29.0pp → 12¢
  • Jun 3, 05:00 UTC · -28.0pp → 12¢
updated 13:28:31 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.

Open large-trade flowBrowse related marketsAlert me on the next trade
updated 13:28:31 UTC·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

8
Same eventCambodia vs. Bhutan
Category · Sports

Market Description

In the upcoming game, scheduled for June 4, 2026 If Bhutan wins, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve "No". This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead. All markets will settle based on the official final result as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. Revisions to officially declared final scores made after market resolution will not be accounted for in determining the outcome.

Why this category?

confidence: high

Category

Sports

Source

Manual override (pattern match)

Matched term

first 90 minutes

Reason

Football resolution phrase — match outcome at end of regulation.

Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.

FAQ — questions readers actually ask

What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will Bhutan win on 2026-06-04?"?

As of Thu, 04 Jun 2026 13:28:31 GMT, YES is priced at 0% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed -5.1pp in the last 24 hours, -0.8pp in the last hour, and -30.1pp in the last 7 days.

When does this market resolve?

This market resolves by Jun 4, 2026 (2026-06-04T12:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from https://www.fifa.com.

What source determines the outcome?

Resolution is sourced from https://www.fifa.com. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.

How much is being traded on this market?

$34.5K of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $34.5K. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $30.5K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 0.8¢.

Is this a trade recommendation?

No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.

How fresh is this data and where does it come from?

This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.

Alerts

¢
Deliver

In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email digests are wired to a server-side cron and continue while your tabs are closed. Telegram and Discord are planned — every existing rule will keep working as channels light up.

Top Holders

20 wallets
Open on Polymarket