Exact Score: Guatemala 0 - 1 Czechia?
Probability
0¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
-11.9pp
24h Vol
$171.83
Liquidity
$31.4K
Canonical status
confidence: highSource status (Polymarket)
Derived status (Orrery)
Reason
Upstream UMA resolution status is 'proposed'.
Resolution is awaiting UMA confirmation. Price may move sharply when it settles.
Resolution & Risk
HIGH risk- End date
- Jun 5, 2026
- UMA status
- proposed
- Resolution source
- Primaryofficial statisticsTypeOfficial statisticsConfidenceextracted · high
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- UMA status: proposed
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
- Market expires Jun 5, 2026 — dispute window active.
Probability (last 7 days)
-31.9pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 2 factors- 01Price move
Down 12pp over 24h
Now 0¢; flat in the last hour.
- 02Active signal
Resolution-risk observation firing
Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
- Wait for the UMA proposal to settle (current status: proposed) — price moves now reflect oracle dynamics, not odds.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
HIGH risk- End date
- Jun 5, 2026
- UMA status
- proposed
- Resolution source
- Primaryofficial statisticsTypeOfficial statisticsConfidenceextracted · high
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- UMA status: proposed
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
- Market expires Jun 5, 2026 — dispute window active.
Verification Brief
A guided checklist for what must be proven before this market is treated as reliable context.
The market is in an oracle/review state where proposal, dispute, and final settlement evidence matter more than the displayed price.
Verification goal
Map resolution-relevant sources to the exact criteria needed to avoid misreading price as settlement.
What needs proof
Primary source
requiredConfirm the primary official statistics and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question.
Current evidence: official statistics
Contract wording
requiredExtract the exact condition that makes YES resolve true and note any exclusions, time zone, deadline, or fallback rule.
Settlement state
requiredCheck whether the market is still live, expired-unresolved, UMA pending, disputed, or officially resolved.
Current evidence: UMA pending
Orrery verification task Exact Score: Guatemala 0 - 1 Czechia? State: UMA pending — oracle review Need sources for: 1. Primary source: Confirm the primary official statistics and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question. 2. Contract wording: Extract the exact condition that makes YES resolve true and note any exclusions, time zone, deadline, or fallback rule. 3. Settlement state: Check whether the market is still live, expired-unresolved, UMA pending, disputed, or officially resolved. Drop only durable links that map to one criterion. Research only. Not trade advice.
Orrery verification brief Exact Score: Guatemala 0 - 1 Czechia? State: oracle review Verify: Primary source + Contract wording Price is not settlement. Research only. Not trade advice.
Market link goes in reply
A controlled loop for durable sources. Every source must answer one criterion from this Verification Brief.
Sources
0
Criteria covered
0
Reviewed
0
Awaiting review
0
Submit a source mapped to a criterion
Recent source checks
Pilot audit summary
Research only · Not trade advice · Every source maps to one criterion
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 03:06SignalMEDIUM
Resolution risk
Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.
- 00:00Scheduled resolutionHIGH
Expiry passed 3h ago; awaiting UMA confirmation
Price movement
-11.9pp over the last 24h, now 0¢.
Biggest hourly move: -47.9pp at 02:00 (to 0¢).
Show top 8 of 70 hourly moves
- 03:06 · -47.9pp → 0¢
- 02:00 · -47.9pp → 0¢
- 23:00 · -38.0pp → 10¢
- 21:00 · -37.0pp → 11¢
- Jun 4, 01:00 UTC · -36.5pp → 12¢
- Jun 3, 18:00 UTC · -38.5pp → 10¢
- Jun 3, 17:00 UTC · -38.5pp → 10¢
- Jun 3, 15:00 UTC · -39.0pp → 9¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
Market Description
In the upcoming FIFA International Friendlies game between Guatemala and Czechia, scheduled for June 4, 2026 at 8:00 PM ET: This market will resolve based on the final score of the Guatemala vs. Czechia match originally scheduled for June 4, 2026 at 8:00 PM ET, considering only the result at the end of 90 minutes of regulation plus stoppage time; extra time and penalty shoot-outs are excluded. If the actual score is not one of the explicitly listed outcomes, the market resolves to "Any Other Score." If the match is postponed, the market will remain open until it is completed; if it is canceled with no make-up game, the market resolves to "0-0." The primary resolution source for this market will be the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if final official statistics are not published within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.
Why this category?
confidence: lowCategory
Source
Reason
No override, sports marker, rule, or upstream hint matched. Market is unclassified — the keyword rules need an entry for this topic.
Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.
FAQ — questions readers actually ask
What is the current Polymarket probability for "Exact Score: Guatemala 0 - 1 Czechia?"?
As of Fri, 05 Jun 2026 03:06:23 GMT, YES is priced at 0% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed -11.9pp in the last 24 hours, +0.0pp in the last hour, and -31.9pp in the last 7 days.
When does this market resolve?
This market resolves by Jun 5, 2026 (2026-06-05T00:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from UMA optimistic oracle (proposed).
What source determines the outcome?
Resolution is sourced from UMA optimistic oracle (proposed). Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.
How much is being traded on this market?
$171.83 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $171.83. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $31.4K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 0.1¢.
Is this a trade recommendation?
No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.
How fresh is this data and where does it come from?
This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.
Alerts
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