Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 2 Bosnia-Herzegovina?
Probability
5¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
+0.0pp
24h Vol
$0.00
Liquidity
$64.90
Canonical status
confidence: mediumSource status (Polymarket)
Derived status (Orrery)
Reason
Liquidity is below $1,000 — price discovery is unreliable.
The derived status is computed from the source flags plus the live YES price, so a market trading near a rail can read as PRICE-PINNED while upstream is still active. That isn't the same as resolved.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Jun 18, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Primaryofficial statisticsTypeOfficial statisticsConfidenceextracted · high
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
- Wide spread (9.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Probability (last 7 days)
-42.5pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 2 factors- 01Active signal
Resolution-risk observation firing
Spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge.
- 02Spread cost
Wide spread — 9.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable advantage. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Jun 18, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Primaryofficial statisticsTypeOfficial statisticsConfidenceextracted · high
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
- Wide spread (9.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Verification Brief
A guided checklist for what must be proven before this market is treated as reliable context.
Liquidity is thin enough that movement can be noisy. Verify source context before reading the move as information.
Create trust-state alertVerification goal
Map resolution-relevant sources to the exact criteria needed to avoid misreading price as settlement.
What needs proof
Primary source
requiredConfirm the primary official statistics and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question.
Current evidence: official statistics
Contract wording
requiredExtract the exact condition that makes YES resolve true and note any exclusions, time zone, deadline, or fallback rule.
Orrery verification task Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 2 Bosnia-Herzegovina? State: Illiquid — liquidity sensitive Need sources for: 1. Primary source: Confirm the primary official statistics and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question. 2. Contract wording: Extract the exact condition that makes YES resolve true and note any exclusions, time zone, deadline, or fallback rule. 3. Liquidity context: Check whether the move is supported by enough liquidity and volume to treat it as meaningful context. Drop only durable links that map to one criterion. Research only. Not trade advice.
Orrery verification brief Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 2 Bosnia-Herzegovina? State: liquidity sensitive Verify: Primary source + Contract wording Price is not settlement. Research only. Not trade advice.
Market link goes in reply
A controlled loop for durable sources. Every source must answer one criterion from this Verification Brief.
Sources
0
Criteria covered
0
Reviewed
0
Awaiting review
0
Submit a source mapped to a criterion
Recent source checks
Pilot audit summary
Research only · Not trade advice · Every source maps to one criterion
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- Jun 18, 19:00 UTCScheduled resolutionLOW
Market resolves in 317.2h
- 13:48SignalLOW
Resolution risk
Spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge.
Price movement
+0.0pp over the last 24h, now 5¢.
Biggest hourly move: -42.5pp at Jun 3, 05:00 UTC (to 5¢).
Show top 8 of 39 hourly moves
- Jun 3, 15:00 UTC · -4.0pp → 5¢
- Jun 3, 13:00 UTC · -4.0pp → 5¢
- Jun 3, 11:00 UTC · -4.0pp → 5¢
- Jun 3, 09:00 UTC · -4.0pp → 5¢
- Jun 3, 08:00 UTC · -4.0pp → 5¢
- Jun 3, 06:00 UTC · -4.0pp → 5¢
- Jun 3, 05:00 UTC · -42.5pp → 5¢
- Jun 2, 22:00 UTC · -3.5pp → 5¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
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Market Description
In the upcoming FIFA World Cup game between Switzerland and Bosnia-Herzegovina, scheduled for June 18, 2026 at 3:00 PM ET: This market will resolve based on the final score of the Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina match originally scheduled for June 18, 2026 at 3:00 PM ET, considering only the result at the end of 90 minutes of regulation plus stoppage time; extra time and penalty shoot-outs are excluded. If the actual score is not one of the explicitly listed outcomes, the market resolves to "Any Other Score." If the match is postponed, the market will remain open until it is completed; if it is canceled with no make-up game, the market resolves to "0-0." The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead. All markets will settle based on the official final result as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. Revisions to officially declared final scores made after market resolution will not be accounted for in determining the outcome.
Why this category?
confidence: highCategory
Source
Matched term
fifa world cupReason
FIFA World Cup markets are Sports; country-name geopolitics rules should not win this phrasing.
Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.
FAQ — questions readers actually ask
What is the current Polymarket probability for "Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 2 Bosnia-Herzegovina?"?
As of Fri, 05 Jun 2026 13:48:43 GMT, YES is priced at 5% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed +0.0pp in the last 24 hours, +0.0pp in the last hour, and -42.5pp in the last 7 days.
When does this market resolve?
This market resolves by Jun 18, 2026 (2026-06-18T19:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from the market description on Polymarket.
What source determines the outcome?
Resolution is sourced from the market description on Polymarket. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.
How much is being traded on this market?
$0.00 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $0.00. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $64.90. Spread between best bid and best ask: 9.0¢.
Is this a trade recommendation?
No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.
How fresh is this data and where does it come from?
This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.
Alerts
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