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OtherExpires Jun 30, 2026

Will Gold (GC) settle over $5,600 on the final trading day of June 2026?

Probability

19¢

1h

+0.0pp

24h

+0.5pp

24h Vol

$0.00

Liquidity

$8.5K

Probability (last 7 days)

-5.0pp 7d
Apr 18, 2026, 14:00Apr 25, 2026, 13:30
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB

Why did it move?

Structured · 2 factors
  1. 1

    Resolution-risk signal firing

    Expires in 1588h with open resolution ambiguity.

  2. 2

    Wide spread — 13.0¢

    Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.

What to track next

  • Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

AI prose summary

 

Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.

Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves

AllTradesSignalsPrice
  • 0s agoResolve

    Market resolves in 1588.0h

    LOW
  • 13:30Signal

    Signal · Resolution risk

    Expires in 1588h with open resolution ambiguity.

    LOW
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability down -10.0pp

    to 19¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability down -9.0pp

    to 19¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability down -11.0pp

    to 19¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability down -9.5pp

    to 18¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability down -5.0pp

    to 25¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability down -5.0pp

    to 25¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability down -7.0pp

    to 23¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability down -12.5pp

    to 19¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability down -7.5pp

    to 19¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability down -7.5pp

    to 19¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability down -11.0pp

    to 19¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability down -16.5pp

    to 19¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability down -13.0pp

    to 19¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability down -15.0pp

    to 19¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability down -11.0pp

    to 19¢

    MEDIUM
  • 3d agoPrice

    Probability down -4.5pp

    to 19¢

    MEDIUM
  • 3d agoPrice

    Probability down -4.0pp

    to 20¢

    MEDIUM
  • 3d agoPrice

    Probability down -4.5pp

    to 19¢

    MEDIUM
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket Data

Market Description

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the official CME settlement price for the Active Month of Gold futures on the final trading day of June 2026 is higher than the listed price. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". For CME Gold (GC) futures contracts, the Active Month is the nearest of CME's designated delivery-cycle months (February, April, June, August, October, December) that is not the spot month. The Active Month changes automatically on the contract's First Position Date, at which point the next eligible contract month becomes the Active Month. Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count. Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract. Only days during June on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored. This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for that trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates. The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Gold (GC) futures.

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk
End date
Jun 30, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/metals/precious/gold.settlements.html
Market type
Binary
  • Wide spread (13.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Alerts

¢
Deliver

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