UnclassifiedExpires May 24, 2026
Creator

Glory in Giza: Oleksandr Usyk vs. Rico Verhoeven

Probability

92¢

1h

+0.0pp

24h

+0.0pp

24h Vol

$37.2K

Liquidity

$36.8K

Research loop

Inspect the market

Read the move, holders, recent trades, source, and resolution risk before saving anything.

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Canonical status

confidence: high

Source status (Polymarket)

active

Derived status (Orrery)

NEAR EXPIRY

Reason

Resolves in 56h.

The derived status is computed from the source flags plus the live YES price, so a market trading near a rail can read as PRICE-PINNED while upstream is still active. That isn't the same as resolved.

Resolution & Risk

HIGH risk
End date
May 24, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Primary
matchroomboxing.com
Link
matchroomboxing.com
Type
Source not classified
Confidence
extracted · low
Market type
Binary
  • Market expires May 24, 2026 — dispute window active.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Probability (last 7 days)

+0.0pp 7d
1007550250
93¢
May 21, 2026, 02:00 UTCMay 21, 2026, 15:54 UTC
updated 15:54:10 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·snap:snap_2026-05-21T15-54Z

Why did it move?

Structured · 1 factor
  • 01
    Active signal

    Resolution-risk observation firing

    Expires in 56h.

What to track next

  • Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
  • Set an alert for resolution status changes — expiry is in 56 hours.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • May 24, 00:00 UTCScheduled resolution

    Market resolves in 56.1h

    HIGH
  • 15:54Signal

    Resolution risk

    Expires in 56h.

    LOW

Price movement

+0.0pp over the last 24h, now 92¢.

updated 15:54:10 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.

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updated 15:54:10 UTC·src:Polymarket Data

Market Description

This market will resolve to "Usyk" if Oleksandr Usyk is officially declared the winner of the fight against Rico Verhoeven, at Glory in Giza, scheduled for May 23, 2026 at The Pyramids of Giza in Giza, Egypt. It will resolve to "Rico" if Rico Verhoeven is officially declared the winner. If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond June 6, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Matchroom Boxing (https://www.matchroomboxing.com/).

Why this category?

confidence: low

Category

Other

Source

Default fallback

Reason

No override, sports marker, rule, or upstream hint matched. Market is unclassified — the keyword rules need an entry for this topic.

Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.

FAQ — questions readers actually ask

What is the current Polymarket probability for "Glory in Giza: Oleksandr Usyk vs. Rico Verhoeven"?

As of Thu, 21 May 2026 15:54:10 GMT, YES is priced at 92% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed +0.0pp in the last 24 hours, +0.0pp in the last hour, and +0.0pp in the last 7 days.

When does this market resolve?

This market resolves by May 24, 2026 (2026-05-24T00:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from the market description on Polymarket.

What source determines the outcome?

Resolution is sourced from the market description on Polymarket. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.

How much is being traded on this market?

$37.2K of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $37.2K. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $36.8K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 2.0¢.

Is this a trade recommendation?

No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.

How fresh is this data and where does it come from?

This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.

Alerts

¢
Deliver

In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email digests are wired to a server-side cron and continue while your tabs are closed. Telegram and Discord are planned — every existing rule will keep working as channels light up.

Top Holders

20 wallets
Open on Polymarket