GRVT FDV above $1B one day after launch?
Probability
11¢
1h
+3.4pp
24h
+1.4pp
24h Vol
$5.00
Liquidity
$12.0K
Probability (last 7 days)
-0.9pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 1
Up 1pp over 24h
Now 11¢; +3.4pp in the last hour.
- 2
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 14732h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 3
Wide spread — 12.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 14732.0h
- 08:57SignalLOW
Resolution risk
Expires in 14732h with open resolution ambiguity.
Price movement
+1.0pp over the last 24h, now 10¢.
Biggest hourly move: -9.9pp at 3d ago (to 10¢).
Show top 8 of 15 hourly moves
- 3d ago · -9.9pp → 10¢
- 3d ago · -4.7pp → 9¢
- 3d ago · -5.3pp → 8¢
- 3d ago · -5.1pp → 8¢
- 4d ago · -4.3pp → 7¢
- 4d ago · -4.2pp → 8¢
- 4d ago · -6.1pp → 6¢
- 4d ago · -5.1pp → 7¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
Related Markets
12- 81¢+0.5pp
GRVT FDV above $100M one day after launch?
Other · Vol $1.3K
- 37¢+4.0pp
GRVT FDV above $300M one day after launch?
Other · Vol $2.17
- 10¢-3.9pp
GRVT FDV above $800M one day after launch?
Other · Vol $0.00
- 95¢-0.4pp
GRVT FDV above $50M one day after launch?
Other · Vol $205.20
- 55¢-2.0pp
GRVT FDV above $200M one day after launch?
Other · Vol $257.31
- 20¢+0.5pp
GRVT FDV above $500M one day after launch?
Other · Vol $30.00
- 4¢0.0pp
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?
Other · Vol $436.6K
- 36¢-1.1pp
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026?
Other · Vol $367.6K
- 11¢0.0pp
Will France win Eurovision 2026?
Other · Vol $263.6K
- 12¢+1.4pp
Will Denmark win Eurovision 2026?
Other · Vol $256.4K
- 56¢+2.0pp
Will Atalanta BC win on 2026-04-27?
Other · Vol $236.5K
- 30¢+25.9pp
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from April 25 to April 27, 2026?
Other · Vol $222.6K
Market Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of GRVT's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If GRVT (https://x.com/grvt_io) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Jan 1, 2028
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Primaryusing the total token supply multiplied by the token priceLinkTypeAmbiguous wordingConfidenceextracted · low
- Market type
- Binary
- Wide spread (12.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.