Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C or higher on April 27?

• 1

  Down 8pp over 24h

  Now 0¢; -0.1pp in the last hour.

• 2

  Heavy volume on this book — 2.5× turnover

  $7.0k traded against $2.8k of visible liquidity. The book is being worked, not just quoted.

• 3

  Resolution-risk signal firing

  Expires in 3h with open resolution ambiguity.

• 4

  Thin liquidity

  Only $2.8k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.

• 5

  Expiry in 3h

  Market resolves within 72 hours — the move likely reflects information about the resolution event itself rather than longer-horizon repricing. Verify the resolution source.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 27 Apr '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.