WeatherMulti-outcomeExpires Apr 24, 2026

Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on April 24?

Probability

100¢

1h

+0.1pp

24h

+0.1pp

24h Vol

$34.4K

Liquidity

$13.9K

Probability (last 7 days)

+0.0pp 7d
Apr 22, 2026, 05:00Apr 25, 2026, 19:27
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB

Why did it move?

Structured · 4 factors
  1. 1

    Heavy volume on this book — 2.5× turnover

    $34.4k traded against $13.9k of visible liquidity. The book is being worked, not just quoted.

  2. 2

    Resolution-risk signal firing

    Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.

  3. 3

    Thin liquidity

    Only $13.9k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.

  4. 4

    Past expiry — awaiting resolution

    Market is past its end date. Any price move now is a settlement / dispute artefact, not new information.

What to track next

  • Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • 19:27Signal

    Resolution risk

    Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoResolve

    Market resolved 31h ago

    HIGH

Price movement

-0.1pp over the last 24h, now 100¢.

Biggest hourly move: +64.3pp at 00:00 (to 100¢).

Show all 18 hour-by-hour ticks
  • 19:00 · +53.7pp → 100¢
  • 17:00 · +45.7pp → 100¢
  • 15:00 · +53.6pp → 100¢
  • 14:00 · +53.6pp → 100¢
  • 12:00 · +62.1pp → 100¢
  • 11:00 · +62.6pp → 100¢
  • 09:00 · +63.2pp → 100¢
  • 08:00 · +61.2pp → 100¢
  • 06:00 · +63.3pp → 100¢
  • 05:00 · +61.8pp → 100¢
  • 03:00 · +63.8pp → 100¢
  • 02:00 · +62.8pp → 100¢
  • 00:00 · +64.3pp → 100¢
  • 23:00 · +63.8pp → 100¢
  • 21:00 · +61.8pp → 100¢
  • 20:00 · +61.9pp → 100¢
  • 1d ago · +62.3pp → 100¢
  • 1d ago · +62.9pp → 100¢
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

8
Same eventHighest temperature in Hong Kong on April 24?

Market Description

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 24 Apr '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.

Resolution & Risk

HIGH risk
End date
Apr 24, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
weather.gov.hkOfficial government sourceextracted · high
weather.gov.hk
Market type
Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
  • Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
  • Market expires Apr 24, 2026 — dispute window active.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Alerts

¢
Deliver

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Top Holders

20 wallets
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