Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 14°C on April 26?

• 1

  Heavy volume on this book — 1.9× turnover

  $5.3k traded against $2.8k of visible liquidity. The book is being worked, not just quoted.

• 2

  Resolution-risk signal firing

  Expires in 15h with open resolution ambiguity.

• 3

  Thin liquidity

  Only $2.8k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.

• 4

  Expiry in 15h

  Market resolves within 72 hours — the move likely reflects information about the resolution event itself rather than longer-horizon repricing. Verify the resolution source.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 26 Apr '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.