Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 22°C on May 3?
Probability
11¢
1h
-2.0pp
24h
+0.0pp
24h Vol
$240.20
Liquidity
$865.66
Resolution & Risk
HIGH risk- End date
- May 3, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
- Market expires May 3, 2026 — dispute window active.
- Wide spread (6.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 2 factors- 01Active signal
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 41h.
- 02Spread cost
Wide spread — 6.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
- Set an alert for resolution status changes — expiry is in 41 hours.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
HIGH risk- End date
- May 3, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
- Market expires May 3, 2026 — dispute window active.
- Wide spread (6.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 0s agoResolveHIGH
Market resolves in 41.4h
- 18:36SignalLOW
Resolution risk
Expires in 41h.
Price movement
+0.0pp over the last 24h, now 11¢.
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
Related Markets
9- 1¢0.0
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 15°C on May 3?
Weather · Vol $314.83
- 2¢0.0
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 16°C on May 3?
Weather · Vol $699.55
- 4¢0.0
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 17°C on May 3?
Weather · Vol $408.12
- 13¢0.0
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 18°C on May 3?
Weather · Vol $214.53
- 18¢0.0
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 19°C on May 3?
Weather · Vol $153.72
- 18¢0.0
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 20°C on May 3?
Weather · Vol $187.64
- 25¢0.0
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 21°C on May 3?
Weather · Vol $128.22
- 6¢0.0
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 23°C on May 3?
Weather · Vol $34.68
Market Description
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 3 May '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.