Honor of Kings: TC Grouping vs LGD NBW - Game 5 Winner
Probability
90¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
+53.0pp
24h Vol
$5.58
Liquidity
$1.3K
Canonical status
confidence: highSource status (Polymarket)
Derived status (Orrery)
Reason
Upstream UMA resolution status is 'proposed'.
Resolution is awaiting UMA confirmation. Price may move sharply when it settles.
Resolution & Risk
HIGH risk- End date
- May 8, 2026
- UMA status
- proposed
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Binary
- UMA status: proposed
- Market expires May 8, 2026 — dispute window active.
- Wide spread (19.9¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 01Price move
Up 53pp over 24h
Now 90¢; flat in the last hour.
- 02Active signal
Resolution-risk observation firing
Expires in 1h. UMA disputed and spread is extremely wide.
- 03Spread cost
Wide spread — 19.9¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable advantage. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
- Wait for the UMA proposal to settle (current status: proposed) — price moves now reflect oracle dynamics, not odds.
- Set an alert for resolution status changes — expiry is in 1 hours.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
HIGH risk- End date
- May 8, 2026
- UMA status
- proposed
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Binary
- UMA status: proposed
- Market expires May 8, 2026 — dispute window active.
- Wide spread (19.9¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 17:10ResolveHIGH
Market resolves in 1.1h
- 16:06SignalHIGH
Resolution risk
Expires in 1h. UMA disputed and spread is extremely wide.
Price movement
+53.0pp over the last 24h, now 90¢.
Biggest hourly move: +51.5pp at 14:00 (to 90¢).
Show top 8 of 14 hourly moves
- 16:00 · +51.0pp → 90¢
- 15:00 · +51.0pp → 90¢
- 14:00 · +51.5pp → 90¢
- 13:00 · +12.0pp → 51¢
- 11:00 · +11.0pp → 50¢
- 2d ago · -9.0pp → 41¢
- 2d ago · -9.0pp → 41¢
- 2d ago · -9.0pp → 41¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
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Market Description
This market refers to the Honor of Kings Upper bracket quarterfinal 2 match between TC Grouping and LGD NBW in the Honor of Kings Challenger Cup Stage 2, initially scheduled for May 8 at 7:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "TC Grouping" if TC Grouping win Game 5 against LGD NBW. This market will resolve to "LGD NBW" if LGD NBW win Game 5 against TC Grouping. If the match begins but is not completed, and Game 5 is concluded with a winner determined, this market will resolve based on the completed Game 5. If Game 5 is not completed for any reason, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled (not played at all) or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without play beginning, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://liquipedia.net/honorofkings/Main_Page. However, if https://liquipedia.net/honorofkings/Main_Page has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.
Why this category?
confidence: mediumCategory
Source
Matched term
kingsReason
Question text contains "kings" — matched the Sports keyword rule.
Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.
FAQ — questions readers actually ask
What is the current Polymarket probability for "Honor of Kings: TC Grouping vs LGD NBW - Game 5 Winner"?
As of Fri, 08 May 2026 16:06:30 GMT, YES is priced at 90% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed +53.0pp in the last 24 hours, +0.0pp in the last hour, and +0.0pp in the last 7 days.
When does this market resolve?
This market resolves by May 8, 2026 (2026-05-08T17:10:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from https://liquipedia.net/honorofkings/Main_Page.
What source determines the outcome?
Resolution is sourced from https://liquipedia.net/honorofkings/Main_Page. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.
How much is being traded on this market?
$5.58 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $5.58. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $1.3K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 19.9¢.
Is this a trade recommendation?
No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.
How fresh is this data and where does it come from?
This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.
