HYPE Up or Down - May 6, 11AM ET
Probability
0¢
1h
-25.9pp
24h
-50.0pp
24h Vol
$82.92
Liquidity
$235.1K
Canonical status
confidence: highSource status (Polymarket)
Derived status (Orrery)
Reason
Upstream UMA resolution status is 'proposed'.
Resolution is awaiting UMA confirmation. Price may move sharply when it settles.
Resolution & Risk
HIGH risk- End date
- May 6, 2026
- UMA status
- proposed
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Binary
- UMA status: proposed
- Market expires May 6, 2026 — dispute window active.
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 01Price move
Down 50pp over 24h
Now 0¢; -25.9pp in the last hour.
- 02Active signal
Momentum signal firing
Probability moved down 50.0pp in 24h with 0.0× liquidity turnover and a tight spread.
- 03Active signal
Resolution-risk signal firing
Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
- Wait for the UMA proposal to settle (current status: proposed) — price moves now reflect oracle dynamics, not odds.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
HIGH risk- End date
- May 6, 2026
- UMA status
- proposed
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Binary
- UMA status: proposed
- Market expires May 6, 2026 — dispute window active.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 16:48SignalHIGH
Momentum down
Probability moved down 50.0pp in 24h with 0.0× liquidity turnover and a tight spread.
- 16:48SignalMEDIUM
Resolution risk
Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.
- 16:00ResolveHIGH
Market resolved 1h ago
Price movement
-50.0pp over the last 24h, now 0¢.
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to "Up" if the close price is greater than or equal to the open price for the HYPE/USDT 1 hour candle that begins on the time and date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Binance, specifically the HYPE/USDT pair (https://www.binance.com/en/futures/HYPEUSDT). The close « C » and open « O » displayed at the top of the graph for the relevant "1H" candle will be used once the data for that candle is finalized. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance HYPE/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.
FAQ — questions readers actually ask
What is the current Polymarket probability for "HYPE Up or Down - May 6, 11AM ET"?
As of Wed, 06 May 2026 16:48:43 GMT, YES is priced at 0% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed -50.0pp in the last 24 hours, -25.9pp in the last hour, and +0.0pp in the last 7 days.
When does this market resolve?
This market resolves by May 6, 2026 (2026-05-06T16:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from https://www.binance.com/en/futures/HYPEUSDT.
What source determines the outcome?
Resolution is sourced from https://www.binance.com/en/futures/HYPEUSDT. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.
How much is being traded on this market?
$82.92 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $82.92. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $235.1K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 0.1¢.
Is this a trade recommendation?
No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.
How fresh is this data and where does it come from?
This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.
