UnclassifiedExpires May 6, 2026
Creator

S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on May 6?

Probability

99¢

1h

+0.6pp

24h

+0.0pp

24h Vol

$44.0K

Liquidity

$8.9K

Resolution & Risk

HIGH risk
End date
May 6, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Primary
Wall Street Journal
Link
wsj.com
Type
News consensus
Market type
Binary
  • Market expires May 6, 2026 — dispute window active.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Probability (last 7 days)

+0.0pp 7d
May 5, 2026, 13:00May 6, 2026, 10:59
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·snap:snap_2026-05-06T11-25Z

Why did it move?

Structured · 3 factors
  • 01
    Volume pressure

    Heavy volume on this book — 5.0× turnover

    $44.0k traded against $8.9k of visible liquidity. The book is being worked, not just quoted.

  • 02
    Active signal

    Resolution-risk signal firing

    Expires in 9h.

  • 03
    Liquidity

    Thin liquidity

    Only $8.9k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.

What to track next

  • Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
  • Set an alert for resolution status changes — expiry is in 9 hours.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • 20:00Resolve

    Market resolves in 8.6h

    HIGH
  • 11:25Signal

    Resolution risk

    Expires in 9h.

    LOW

Price movement

+0.0pp over the last 24h, now 99¢.

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.

Open whale feedBrowse related marketsAlert me on the next trade
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

6
Category · Other

Market Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the official S&P 500 Index open price for S&P 500 (SPX) on May 6 is higher than the official S&P 500 Index closing price for SPX on the most recent prior trading day. This market will resolve to "Down" if the official S&P 500 Index open price for S&P 500 (SPX) on May 6 is lower than the official S&P 500 Index closing price for SPX on the most recent prior trading day. E.g., ordinarily, a market on Monday would refer to the previous Friday for its most recent closing price, unless that Friday were a market holiday, in which case it would refer to Thursday, or the next most recent trading day. If the two prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve 50-50. Note that all figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding. If SPX does not trade at all during the regular session, the market will resolve 50-50. If either of the relevant days are shortened (for example, due to a market holiday schedule), the official open/close price published by S&P 500 Index for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If the previous trading day has no official closing price (for example, due to a trading halt into the market close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price. The resolution source for this market is the Wall Street Journal, specifically the Open/Close values published by the WSJ under "Historical Prices". US: https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks EMEA: https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks/emea ASIA: https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks/asia

Alerts

¢
Deliver

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Top Holders

20 wallets
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