Iran removed from FIFA World Cup by April 30?

1. 1

   Down 1pp over 24h

   Now 2¢; +0.8pp in the last hour.

2. 2

   Resolution-risk signal firing

   Expires in 103h with open resolution ambiguity.

3. 3

   Thin liquidity

   Only $7.8k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Loading prose summary — see the structured breakdown above.

Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.

Following US military strikes on Iran, FIFA has stated it will "monitor developments" regarding Iran's participation in the 2026 World Cup. You can read more about that here: https://www.espn.com/soccer/story/_/id/48060986/fifa-monitor-developments-iran-ahead-2026-world-cup. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran is officially disqualified, banned, withdrawn, or otherwise confirmed not to participate in the 2026 FIFA World Cup by April 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of resolution, a qualifying announcement made on or before April 30, 2026, will suffice, regardless of whether Iran ultimately participates in the tournament thereafter. "Confirmed to not participate" is defined as an official announcement by FIFA, the Iranian Football Federation, or a governing body resulting in Iran's removal from the tournament, whether due to disqualification, withdrawal, suspension, or any other reason. The resolution source will be official announcements from FIFA or the Iranian Football Federation, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.