ITF W35 Verbier Women: Micol Salvadori vs Alexandra Biot
Probability
45¢
1h
-36.0pp
24h
+0.0pp
24h Vol
$12.1K
Liquidity
$47.7K
Canonical status
confidence: highSource status (Polymarket)
Derived status (Orrery)
Reason
Active market, expiry beyond the near-expiry window.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Aug 24, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.0pp 7dResolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Aug 24, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Verification Brief
A guided checklist for what must be proven before this market is treated as reliable context.
The market is live. Track source, liquidity, and wording before escalating it to a resolution-sensitive task.
Create trust-state alertVerification goal
Map resolution-relevant sources to the exact criteria needed to avoid misreading price as settlement.
What needs proof
Primary source
requiredConfirm the primary news consensus source and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question.
Current evidence: https://www.itftennis.com/en/tournament-calendar/
Contract wording
requiredExtract the exact condition that makes YES resolve true and note any exclusions, time zone, deadline, or fallback rule.
Orrery verification task ITF W35 Verbier Women: Micol Salvadori vs Alexandra Biot State: Live — live monitoring Need sources for: 1. Primary source: Confirm the primary news consensus source and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question. 2. Contract wording: Extract the exact condition that makes YES resolve true and note any exclusions, time zone, deadline, or fallback rule. Drop only durable links that map to one criterion. Research only. Not trade advice.
Orrery verification brief ITF W35 Verbier Women: Micol Salvadori vs Alexandra Biot State: live monitoring Verify: Primary source + Contract wording Price is not settlement. Research only. Not trade advice.
Market link goes in reply
A controlled loop for durable sources. Every source must answer one criterion from this Verification Brief.
Sources
0
Criteria covered
0
Reviewed
0
Awaiting review
0
Submit a source mapped to a criterion
Recent source checks
Pilot audit summary
Research only · Not trade advice · Every source maps to one criterion
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- Aug 24, 07:00 UTCScheduled resolutionLOW
Market resolves in 165.9h
Price movement
+0.0pp over the last 24h, now 45¢.
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
Related Markets
14- 50¢0.0
Salvadori vs. Biot: Match O/U 21.5
Sports · Vol $0.00
- 50¢0.0
Salvadori vs. Biot: Match O/U 22.5
Sports · Vol $0.00
- 90¢0.0
Salvadori vs. Biot: Set 2 Games O/U 8.5
Sports · Vol $0.00
- 50¢0.0
ITF W35 Verbier Women, Qualifying: Completed Match: Micol Salvadori vs Alexandra Biot
Sports · Vol $1.2K
- 50¢0.0
Micol Salvadori vs. Alexandra Biot: Total Sets O/U 2.5
Sports · Vol $0.00
- 50¢0.0
Salvadori vs. Biot: Match O/U 23.5
Sports · Vol $0.00
- 50¢0.0
Set Handicap: Salvadori (-1.5) vs Biot (+1.5)
Sports · Vol $0.00
- 90¢0.0
Salvadori vs. Biot: Set 2 Games O/U 9.5
Sports · Vol $0.00
- 27¢-17.0
LoL: T1 vs DN SOOPers (BO5) - KeSPA Cup Playoffs
Sports · Vol $487.0K
- 0¢0.0
Will Shakhtar Donetsk win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?
Sports · Vol $418.4K
- 0¢-57.5
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 1 Winner
Sports · Vol $240.6K
- 20¢-7.0
Will Team Falcons Win the CS2 EWC 2026?
Sports · Vol $170.6K
- 30¢-31.0
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO3) - LCK Challengers League Rounds 3-4 Challenge Group
Sports · Vol $133.3K
- 54¢0.0
LoL: Bulldog Esports vs LEO (BO3) - NLC Regular Season
Sports · Vol $132.8K
Market Description
This market refers to the tennis match between Micol Salvadori and Alexandra Biot in the ITF W35 Verbier Women, Qualifying, originally scheduled for August 17, 2026 at 3:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Micol Salvadori' if Micol Salvadori advances against Alexandra Biot. This market will resolve to 'Alexandra Biot' if Alexandra Biot advances against Micol Salvadori. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the International Tennis Federation (ITF). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Why this category?
confidence: highCategory
Source
Matched term
tennis matchReason
Generic tennis-match marker.
Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.
FAQ — questions readers actually ask
What is the current Polymarket probability for "ITF W35 Verbier Women: Micol Salvadori vs Alexandra Biot"?
As of Mon, 17 Aug 2026 09:06:23 GMT, YES is priced at 45% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed +0.0pp in the last 24 hours, -36.0pp in the last hour, and +0.0pp in the last 7 days.
When does this market resolve?
This market resolves by Aug 24, 2026 (2026-08-24T07:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from https://www.itftennis.com/en/tournament-calendar/.
What source determines the outcome?
Resolution is sourced from https://www.itftennis.com/en/tournament-calendar/. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.
How much is being traded on this market?
$12.1K of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $25.4K. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $47.7K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 3.0¢.
Is this a trade recommendation?
No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.
How fresh is this data and where does it come from?
This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email digests are wired to a server-side cron and continue while your tabs are closed. Telegram and Discord are planned — every existing rule will keep working as channels light up.
Top Holders
20 wallets- Scary-Edible6.3K
- Past-Punishment1.7K
- Usable-Bench1.1K
- Aware-Content376
- Petty-Pneumonia349