Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by June 30, 2026?
Probability
100¢
1h
+0.1pp
24h
+0.9pp
24h Vol
$8.3K
Liquidity
$8.2K
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- May 14, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- PrimaryFederal ReserveTypeOfficial government sourceConfidenceextracted · high
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Probability (last 7 days)
+28.1pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 1 factor- 01Liquidity
Thin liquidity
Only $8.2k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.
What to track next
- Set an alert at the next ±5pp probability move so you find out before the next leg.
- Add to your watchlist — Home will show probability deltas since your last visit.
- Compare against sibling markets in the same event below — divergent pricing across related contracts is the cleanest tell.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 335.2h
Price movement
+0.9pp over the last 24h, now 100¢.
Biggest hourly move: +19.1pp at 3d ago (to 97¢).
Show top 8 of 55 hourly moves
- 2d ago · +15.9pp → 97¢
- 3d ago · +17.0pp → 97¢
- 3d ago · +16.2pp → 96¢
- 3d ago · +15.5pp → 97¢
- 3d ago · +15.8pp → 96¢
- 3d ago · +16.9pp → 96¢
- 3d ago · +19.1pp → 97¢
- 4d ago · +14.8pp → 91¢
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Jerome Powell ceases to be Chair of the Federal Reserve for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Jerome Powell's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Jerome Powell and the Federal Reserve; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- May 14, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- PrimaryFederal ReserveTypeOfficial government sourceConfidenceextracted · high
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Alerts
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