Will Khamenei post 15-19 posts from April 17 to April 24, 2026?
Probability
0¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
-42.2pp
24h Vol
$3.0K
Liquidity
$264.7K
Probability (last 7 days)
-33.6pp 7dWhy did it move?
Heuristic summary, generated from the public market metrics above: probability movement, volume, liquidity, spread, signals, and resolution status.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 08:59SignalMEDIUM
Signal · Resolution risk
Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.
- 08:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -44.6pp
to 0¢
- 06:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -45.7pp
to 0¢
- 05:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -46.4pp
to 0¢
- 03:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -41.3pp
to 1¢
- 02:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -41.0pp
to 2¢
- 00:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -45.0pp
to 0¢
- 22:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -46.1pp
to 0¢
- 21:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -46.6pp
to 0¢
- 20:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -45.7pp
to 0¢
- 18:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -39.2pp
to 3¢
- 17:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -42.3pp
to 1¢
- 16:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -40.0pp
to 3¢
- 16:00ResolveHIGH
Market resolved 17h ago
- 14:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -40.8pp
to 4¢
- 13:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -10.8pp
to 35¢
- 12:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -10.3pp
to 36¢
- 11:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -8.0pp
to 39¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -7.6pp
to 38¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -7.3pp
to 39¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -6.7pp
to 40¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.1pp
to 41¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.2pp
to 48¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.4pp
to 50¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.0pp
to 50¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.1pp
to 49¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.6pp
to 50¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 11.8pp
to 45¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 9.7pp
to 43¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 10.5pp
to 45¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve according to the number of times Khamenei (@khamenei_ir), posts on X between April 17, 12:00 PM ET and April 24, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Resolution & Risk
HIGH risk- End date
- Apr 24, 2026
- UMA status
- proposed
- Resolution source
- https://x.com/khamenei_irAmbiguous wording
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- UMA status: proposed
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
- Market expires Apr 24, 2026 — dispute window active.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).