UnclassifiedExpires May 15, 2026
Creator

KHL: Ak Bars Kazan vs. Lokomotiv Yaroslavl

Probability

21¢

1h

-33.5pp

24h

-35.5pp

24h Vol

$7.4K

Liquidity

$654.50

Canonical status

confidence: high

Source status (Polymarket)

active

Derived status (Orrery)

EXPIRED

Reason

Expiry is in the past but upstream has not confirmed a resolution.

Expiry passed and the market has not been officially resolved. Do not treat the price as the outcome.

Resolution & Risk

HIGH risk
End date
May 15, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Primary
based on the final score including any overtime periods and shootouts
Link
en.khl.ru
Type
Ambiguous wording
Market type
Binary
  • Market expires May 15, 2026 — dispute window active.
  • Wide spread (6.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Probability (last 7 days)

+0.0pp 7d
1007550250
21¢
May 12, 2026, 16:00 UTCMay 15, 2026, 17:03 UTC
updated 17:03:39 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·snap:snap_2026-05-15T17-03Z

Why did it move?

Structured · 4 factors
  • 01
    Price move

    Down 36pp over 24h

    Now 21¢; -33.5pp in the last hour.

  • 02
    Volume pressure

    Heavy volume on this book — 11.3× turnover

    $7.4k traded against $655 of visible liquidity. The book is being worked, not just quoted.

  • 03
    Active signal

    Resolution-risk observation firing

    Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.

  • 04
    Spread cost

    Wide spread — 6.0¢

    Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable advantage. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.

What to track next

  • Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • 17:03Signal

    Resolution risk

    Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.

    MEDIUM
  • 16:00Scheduled resolution

    Expiry passed 1h ago; not yet resolved upstream

    HIGH

Price movement

-35.5pp over the last 24h, now 21¢.

Biggest hourly move: -30.0pp at 17:00 (to 20¢).

Show top 8 of 9 hourly moves
  • 17:00 · -30.0pp → 20¢
  • 15:00 · +3.5pp → 54¢
  • 13:00 · +3.5pp → 54¢
  • 12:00 · +4.0pp → 54¢
  • 08:00 · +4.5pp → 55¢
  • 07:00 · +4.5pp → 55¢
  • 05:00 · +4.5pp → 55¢
  • 04:00 · +4.5pp → 55¢
updated 17:03:39 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.

Open whale feedBrowse related marketsAlert me on the next trade
updated 17:03:39 UTC·src:Polymarket Data

Market Description

In the upcoming KHL game, scheduled for 2026-05-15: If Ak Bars Kazan win, the market will resolve to "Ak Bars Kazan". If Lokomotiv Yaroslavl win, the market will resolve to "Lokomotiv Yaroslavl". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. The result will be determined based on the final score including any overtime periods and shootouts. In the event of a shootout, one goal will be added to the winning team's score for the purpose of resolution.

Why this category?

confidence: low

Category

Other

Source

Default fallback

Reason

No override, sports marker, rule, or upstream hint matched. Market is unclassified — the keyword rules need an entry for this topic.

Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.

FAQ — questions readers actually ask

What is the current Polymarket probability for "KHL: Ak Bars Kazan vs. Lokomotiv Yaroslavl"?

As of Fri, 15 May 2026 17:03:39 GMT, YES is priced at 21% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed -35.5pp in the last 24 hours, -33.5pp in the last hour, and +0.0pp in the last 7 days.

When does this market resolve?

This market resolves by May 15, 2026 (2026-05-15T16:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from https://en.khl.ru/calendar/.

What source determines the outcome?

Resolution is sourced from https://en.khl.ru/calendar/. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.

How much is being traded on this market?

$7.4K of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $7.7K. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $654.50. Spread between best bid and best ask: 6.0¢.

Is this a trade recommendation?

No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.

How fresh is this data and where does it come from?

This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.

Alerts

¢
Deliver

In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email digests are wired to a server-side cron and continue while your tabs are closed. Telegram and Discord are planned — every existing rule will keep working as channels light up.

Top Holders

20 wallets
Open on Polymarket